Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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285 FXUS64 KOUN 250259 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 959 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Evening) Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 We are anticipating widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, as a cold front approaches south central and southeastern Oklahoma. A dryline will also extend south of the cold front across far southern Oklahoma (Ardmore southward into northern Texas). An extremely humid air mass, with upper 70s to near 80 degree dewpoints over parts of east Texas, will continue to advect northward into south central and southeast Oklahoma. By afternoon, heating will result in very high to extreme instability in the warm sector. Hodographs are slightly curved near the surface, but are generally straight. Although very large hail and damaging winds are expected to be the main hazards, given the amount of instability 3500-4500 J/kg, tornadoes can not be ruled out, especially storms that move right of the mean storm motion. It is possible that enough storms may form to effectively push the cold front/boundary south and east of the area. Although much drier air has filtered into northwest Oklahoma, an air mass change across southeast Oklahoma will come from afternoon and evening convection. Most of the storms are expected to be clear of Atoka and Byran counties by 8 to 9 pm, perhaps earlier. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Somewhat similar to Thursday (May 23rd), moisture advection will be underway early Saturday, as a shortwave trough approaches the southern and central Plains. A capping inversion will strengthen through the morning and into the early afternoon with 25C to 30C 85H temperatures overspreading a large part of West Texas and perhaps far western Oklahoma. Despite some model guidance, it appears that at least a few storms will develop by late afternoon, perhaps early evening. With better height falls expected across the northern half of Oklahoma and perhaps better jet dynamics, perhaps more storms will occur across the northern half of Oklahoma. Given the instability 4000+ J/kg east of the dryline and favorable hodographs, which will only improve through the early evening, dangerous storms are expected. Storms that develop are expected to move north and east of the area by midnight. Another cold front will move through the area Sunday into Sunday afternoon. Although instability is not expected to be as high by Sunday afternoon, a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop along a weak frontal boundary by mid afternoon. Any storms that form should move fairly quickly to the east by early evening. With a frontal boundary south of the area on Monday, mainly dry conditions are expected on Monday. By Tuesday afternoon and evening, it`s possible that upslope flow may result in afternoon convection over the higher terrain to our west. Storms may organize during the early evening and may impact the area overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. It`s possible that another MCS may move across the area late Wednesday evening into Thursday evening. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 956 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Some stratus will be possible early Saturday with MVFR ceilings. Otherwise, VFR ceilings are expected with mid and high clouds. Winds will gradually shift towards the E and then the SE or S this TAF period. Some storms will be possible late Saturday afternoon/evening. Chances are currently too low at some places for mention in TAF. Strong, variable winds and large hail will be possible with the storms Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 59 89 70 91 / 0 10 20 0 Hobart OK 57 93 66 93 / 0 20 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 64 94 73 97 / 0 20 10 0 Gage OK 53 91 60 90 / 0 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 56 87 69 88 / 0 10 40 0 Durant OK 67 90 73 94 / 20 0 20 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...25