Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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751 FXUS63 KPAH 011118 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 618 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place this weekend and next week, resulting in on and off chances of showers and storms. - Temperatures are expected to remain near to a bit above average. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 An upper level shortwave trof just to our west will move slowly northeast across the area today. Rain coverage will be best on through the morning hours, with scattered to numerous showers this afternoon and evening. Overall instability looks to be the best during the afternoon and early evening for some thunder activity. Overall, we have very little confidence there will be any severe storm activity (see SPC`s marginal risk area for today). Maybe some precip loading and gusty downdraft winds with some of the stronger cells. Sunday through Sunday night should be quiet with weak high pressure in control. Next week a consensus of model output has our flow transitioning from zonal to northwest as an upper low deepens while moving east along the U.S.-Canadian border. This pattern will support our continued chance of showers and storms along with slightly above average temperatures, as a series of upper level impulses move over our region interacting with a rather warm and unstable environment. The NBM captures this relatively well, so no real adjustments needed to its output for our forecast. Thursday through Friday night may be mostly void of shower and storm activity per a model consensus. We cannot rule out some diurnal activity, so slight chance PoPs will remain during mainly the afternoon hours. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 601 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A shortwave will pass through the Quad State area today, bringing rain to each TAF site this moring and scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. MVFR/IFR ceilings this morning will gradually improve through thea afternoon; however, ceilings and visibilities may lower again tonight. Sunday will bring VFR conditions at each TAF site. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DW DISCUSSION...CN AVIATION...KC