541
FXUS66 KPDT 040932
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
232 AM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...The current weather pattern
is marked by building high pressure just off the California coast
and a deep low centered around the BC/Alaskan coast. Wedged between
is us is a band of amplified WNW flow aloft that will lead to
another round of gusty winds and showers, however rain activity is
expected to occur primarily across the mountains for today, as the
wind regime aloft is a bit more zonal than yesterday`s, leading to
more prominent shadowing. Still, hi-res guidance shows light shower
activity across the lower elevations early this morning, before the
upper-level winds mix down and make for yet another windy day for
the forecast area.

Did issue a Wind Advisory for the Simcoe Highlands, where guidance
was pretty consistent in depicting wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range
during the day today, with exposed ridgetops potentially seeing
higher gusts. Elsewhere, winds will nudge toward advisory criteria,
particularly across the Southern Blues and Washington Basin, however
confidence wasn`t quite high enough to pull the trigger on an
advisory. Expect winds to approach 40 mph at times out of the west
for those areas, however.

Shower activity will persist in the mountains through the overnight
hours heading into Wednesday before high pressure to our south
begins to take over, making for clear and dry conditions with
warming temperatures expected through the rest of the week. The
strongest of the high pressure is expected to remain to our south
over the coming days, capping the warming to an extent, however high
temps across our lower elevations are expected to approach the 90s
by the end of the period. Evans/74

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Models are in good agreement
that a ridge of high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest
will extend up into the Pacific Northwest Friday and Saturday. This
will boost high temperatures across the lower elevation into the
upper 80s and 90s Friday and Saturday being roughly 10-15 degrees
above normal. An upper level trough over the eastern Pacific will
begin to approach the Pacific Northwest Friday placing the forecast
area under a southwest flow heading into the weekend. This will lead
to some weak instability across central and northeast Oregon
providing a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening. The remnants of the trough begins moving into the region
late Saturday serving as a better trigger for some thunderstorms
again across the eastern portion of central Oregon and northeast
Oregon. The weak trough will exit far eastern Oregon Sunday
afternoon leaving enough instability to trigger some thunderstorms
mainly east of LaGrande. In the wake of the departing weak trough a
ridge of high pressure will rebuild over the region early next week
maintaining the warmer than normal conditions (5-10 degrees) over
the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS (Previous Discussion)...Winds have
decreased, for the most part and should remain 15 kts or less
overnight before increasing again Tuesday afternoon with gusts 20
to 25 kts as a weak weather system moves through. This system will
also bring rain during the morning hours, mainly for DLS PDT, YKM
and ALW. The best chances are at DLS, with lesser chances
elsewhere. Latest guidance seems to be lower on rain chances. Sill
will handle with TEMPO and PROB30 groups. Also, earlier TAFS had
MVFR for DLS. Those have now been removed as confidence has
decreased, but while confidence is low (<30%) MVFR conditions can
not be ruled out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  73  48  75  49 /  20  10   0   0
ALW  73  51  76  51 /  40  10   0   0
PSC  76  50  79  52 /  20   0   0   0
YKM  72  41  77  47 /  30   0   0   0
HRI  77  49  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  68  43  74  47 /  40   0   0   0
RDM  73  45  79  47 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  72  48  75  49 /  30  10   0   0
GCD  76  47  81  51 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  70  51  79  52 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for WAZ521.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...77