496
FXUS65 KREV 240856
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
156 AM PDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy winds and mild temperatures will persist through Saturday
with a 10-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
in the eastern Sierra south of Lake Tahoe and areas north of
Susanville. Temperatures then warm Sunday into early next week
with only a low chance of thunderstorms in the Sierra Monday
afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

* Mild temperatures again today and Saturday, then much warmer to
  round out the Memorial Day Weekend.

* Late day breezes will edge upward today and Saturday with wind
  gusts generally 25-35 mph. Lighter afternoon breezes return
  Sunday onward.

* There is a 10-20% chance of thunder mainly eastern Sierra and
  near the Oregon border this afternoon, then again in the Sierra
  Monday. Otherwise, dry conditions will be the predominating
  weather this weekend.

For today and Saturday, a weak shortwave trough will advance
across the Great Basin and keep breezy conditions and the mild
temperatures going. There is a 10-20% chance of showers/storms
along the eastern Sierra south of Lake Tahoe this afternoon, with
CAMs indicating some showers across western NV as showers push
off the Sierra this evening. There is a secondary potential north
of Susanville-Gerlach with the presence of weak forcing ahead of
an upper jet. Drier and more stable conditions then overspread
the area as westerly flow develops behind the shortwave system
tonight-Saturday. Enhanced breezes both days will bring local chop
to area lakes, most gusts 20-35 mph. The drier airmass in the
wake of this trough will allow for a few chilly nights for colder
valleys, especially in the Sierra where readings will drop to near
or below freezing.

For Sunday and beyond, conditions start to heat up with high
temperatures returning to around 10 degrees above normal by Mon-
Tue. Lighter winds and increased heating should be sufficient for
isolated storms to return to the Sierra Monday afternoon (10-20%
chance). Storms may develop again Tuesday, but confidence in
coverage is lower as nearly 50% of the ensemble members show
another trough approaching and bringing a return to drier
westerly flow. This uncertainty is evident in the increased
temperature spread in blended model guidance Wednesday onward.

Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

* 30-hr operating period (12Z Fri-18Z Sat): A 10-20% chance of a
  shower or storm KMAR-KMMH this afternoon 20Z-01Z, pushing off
  into western NV early evening and diminishing after sundown.
  There is a similar chance for showers/storms north of KSVE near
  the Oregon border. If a storm develops near an airport, erratic
  wind gusts to 40 mph may occur, but impacts will not be long-
  lasting. Breezy west winds with gusts 20-25 kts may bring some
  light mechanical turbulence 20-03Z. VFR with light winds
  overnight into Sat AM.

* Rest of the Memorial Day Weekend: Breezy west winds again
  Saturday PM with enhanced gusts 25-30 kts. Generally dry and
  stable the rest of the weekend with lighter daytime breezes. The
  exception will be a low-end chance of thunderstorms Monday PM
  along the Sierra.

Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$