022
FXUS64 KSJT 302359 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
659 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

The latest severe weather/mesoanalysis analysis shows a dryline
well to our west over extreme SE New Mexico into the Trans Pecos
and an outflow boundary extended from south of the I-20 corridor
on west into the Permian Basin. Scattered thunderstorms are
located along this boundary as it continues to move slowly south.
The most unstable air is located south of the outflow boundary
with SBCAPES of 3000 to 4000 J/kg across the southern half of the
area. Also, effective shear values are 35 to 45 knots.

Thunderstorms will continue along the outflow boundary this
afternoon and may become severe in the next few hours across the
northern half of the area. Other storms, probably supercells will
develop along the dryline to our west over the southern Permian
Basin and Trans Pecos and move east into the western part our area
and merge with the outflow boundary storms by early this evening
and move east- southeast across much of the area to possibly the
I-10 corridor late this evening. Some storms will be severe with
the main hazards being very large hail, significant damaging
winds(possibly 80 mph) and a few tornadoes, especially near any
boundaries. The best penitential for more organized severe
weather will be in the Enhanced risk area or north of an Sterling
City to San Angelo to Brady line, but this area may shift a little
south. The convection will decrease in intensity after midnight
with maybe still a few isolated marginal severe storms. For
Friday, another day of scattered thunderstorms with a few severe
storms possible due to strong instability and good deep layer
shear. Will have to see how tonight`s convection plays out and
where the outflow boundaries setup for tomorrow and also the
dryline to our west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

By Friday evening, most model data generally agrees that our best
chances for convection will occur earlier in the day on Friday. With
that in mind, will keep PoPs limited to 30% or less for Friday
evening and overnight. Another shortwave is expected to move through
the area during the Saturday afternoon and evening timeframe, which
will continue the shower and thunderstorm chances going into
Saturday afternoon/evening. Additional shortwave energy, although
somewhat weaker is expected to move through on Sunday as well. The
best chances for precipitation associated with this feature will be
north of Interstate 10. Although it`s not possible to reliably
predict whether or not these storms will be severe more than a
couple days out, it`s certainly possible that additional severe
weather could occur either Saturday or Sunday.

By early next week, upper level ridging is expected to develop over
our area, which is expected to stifle precipitation chances, as well
as result in temperatures warming back up into the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

The main concerns are with placement and timing of convection, and
with low cloud development late tonight into midday Friday. Despite
the favorable environment for severe storms, with considerable
high cloud cover overspreading the area early this evening from
West Texas storms, our area has a lack of development early this
evening. Even the hi-res models are struggling with this scenario. As
a result, needed to pull the mention of TSRA from our TAF sites
this evening. Will monitor radar trends and amend TAFs as needed
going into tonight. With thunderstorm development over the Texas
Panhandle, a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) appears to be
taking shape, and this could become our main focus for late
tonight through Friday morning. In addition, if storms southwest
of Lubbock merge into a cluster, could move southeast toward the
western Big Country and northwestern Concho Valley tonight (ahead
of the storm complex currently over the Texas Panhandle). Outside
of the convective activity, should have some low cloud development
and expansion late tonight into mid- morning Friday with MVFR
ceilings. South to southeast winds are expected ahead of any
thunderstorm clusters or MCS, and strong, gusty northwest or north
winds would likely accompany storm clusters or MCS on the leading
edge.

Have a considerable amount of uncertainty with placement/timing of
thunderstorms over the next 12-18 hours, and anticipate updates
with the TAFs as this unfolding convective situation becomes more
clear.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     89  65  81  67 /  30  80  40  20
San Angelo  94  68  88  69 /  20  50  30  10
Junction    95  71  92  72 /  20  40  30  20
Brownwood   88  65  81  68 /  30  80  50  20
Sweetwater  91  65  83  68 /  30  70  40  20
Ozona       91  70  92  69 /  20  20  10  10
Brady       89  67  81  69 /  20  70  40  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...19