155
FXUS64 KSJT 041839
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
139 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Temperatures will be well above normal for much of West Central
Texas today, as an 850 mb thermal ridge continues to build over
our area. West/southwest winds at the surface will bring hot,
downsloping air into West Central Texas. The dry line will push
east into our area this afternoon. Temperatures to the west of the
dry line are forecast to be in the 103 to 107 range. Temperatures
will be a bit cooler to the east of the dry line, but moisture
will be much higher, and heat indices could reach to near 108 in
our southeastern counties. A Heat Advisory has been issued for
counties south of the Big Country. This is not to say that the Big
Country won`t be hot today, because it definitely will be (record
breaking to be exact), but it`s looking like it will sit right
below Advisory thresholds or only hit it for a short period of
time. The forecast high today in Abilene is 3 degrees higher than
the record for this date (101 set in 2013). The forecast high in
San Angelo is equivalent to the record for this date (107 set in
1916). So we could see another record breaking day today.

Precipitation chances will remain low today. Strong storms are
expected to our east/northeast this evening. There is a small
chance the storms could clip the northern Big Country, but storms
don`t look likely right now. We could see an boundary push through
late this evening and overnight, bringing gusty north winds for a
few hours after its passage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Thursday into the weekend, and upper level ridge will sit over
west central Texas, keeping our temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for afternoon highs, and suppressing rain chances
across the area. Highs will range from the mid 90s to around 105
degrees at times.

By Sunday night, a substantial trough will begin to move into the
western U. S. coast. This trough will help to break down the
ridge over the southwestern U. S. while at the same time drawing
an offshore low off the coast of the Baja Peninsula northward. The
trough and low will eventually merge over the southwestern U. S.
states by Monday morning. Another trough over northern plains is
expected to send a cold front into our area in the Monday/Tuesday
timeframe. The cold front combined with energy from the
southwestern U. S. low moving through should provide a chance for
precipitation and cooler temperatures for west central Texas early
next week from Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Except for visibility reductions to MVFR in haze at KJCT and
possibly KBBD toward morning, VFR conditions expected. Gusty
southwest winds weaken toward 00Z. A wind shift to the northeast
at 6 KTS expected at KABI around 10Z and KSJT 13Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  94  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  73  99  71 102 /   0   0   0  10
Junction    76 101  72 101 /   0  10  10  10
Brownwood   73  92  69  95 /  10   0   0   0
Sweetwater  71  94  71  99 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       72  99  72 100 /   0  10   0  10
Brady       74  95  70  96 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Coke-Coleman-
Concho-Crockett-Irion-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Runnels-San
Saba-Schleicher-Sterling-Sutton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04