Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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422 FXUS62 KTAE 241719 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 119 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1017 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 No updates made to the forecast for this morning. A few passing showers have cleared the area and wind gusts that moved in behind them have subsided as well. Isolated showers/storms are still forecast to develop later this afternoon with the highest probabilities across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle today. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Fog through late this morning will be most prevalent in the FL Counties, where it may be locally dense around sunrise. The fog will abate by around 9 AM ET. Our attention turns to a potential of afternoon showers and thunderstorms roughly northwest of an Albany to Defuniak Springs line. A shortwave in the northwest flow aloft will in lift with PWATs across the aforementioned area rising to ~1.5 inches. Cannot rule out a strong storm or two given Bulk Shear approaching 40 kts and SB CAPE around 1-1.5k J/kg this evening. The main concern is gusty winds given high DCAPE values, although activity will be limited by dry air aloft. Highs today in the upper 80s closer to the coast to lower 90s inland. Tonight another round of fog is likely, especially from Southeast AL into the I-10 corridor of FL. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 The main concerns during the Memorial Day Weekend is the potential for severe weather on Saturday and above average temperatures leading to heat stress. On Saturday, a complex of storms could propagate southeastward into the region during the afternoon and evening hours. Seasonably high deep layer shear around 45 knots and SB CAPE around 2k J/kg will lead to an environment favorable for isolated damaging wind gusts. SPC has outlooked much of the region from the I-10 corridor northward in a Marginal Risk of severe weather. In addition, isolated large hail is also possible. We will refine the threats and timing as the event draws closer. Those with outdoor plans are encouraged to monitor the forecast and adjust accordingly. There will be a return to dry weather on Sunday, so that looks to be the pick of the weekend for outdoor plans. With above average temperatures in the 90s, the Apparent Temperature/Heat Index will approach 100 degrees at times, especially in the FL counties, increasing heat stress for those outdoors that do not take proper precautions. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 The main concern is the potential for another round of severe weather early next week. A cold front will approach on Monday and move through the region Monday night into Tuesday. There looks to be sufficient instability and shear for at least strong thunderstorms in the late Monday into Tuesday time frame. After the front moves through, dry weather is expected midweek. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 106 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the afternoon and into the evening hours. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening, with the best chance of a thunderstorm being near DHN. The chance of low stratus and reduced visibility increases late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Areas of IFR to LIFR ceilings are expected between 08Z and 14Z. Some uncertainty exists regarding whether these lower ceilings will occur at ABY. Any low ceilings and patchy fog should lift by the 14Z to 15Z time frame tomorrow morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Tranquil boating conditions to start the Memorial Day Weekend, with light southerly winds and wave heights less than 2 feet through Sunday. The only exception could be strong storms mainly north of the waters on Saturday afternoon and evening, which could lead to locally higher winds and seas. A cold front will approach the waters on Monday with southwest winds increasing. The cold front will move through the waters Monday night into Tuesday with winds clocking around to the Northwest, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms. On Monday and Tuesday, wave heights could approach 3 feet offshore. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 The combination of Southwest transport winds around 10 to 15 mph and mixing heights of 5,000 to 6,000 feet will lead to high dispersions this afternoon across much of Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia. On Saturday, there is the potential for thunderstorms to produce strong, gusty winds during the afternoon and evening. Some storms from the I-10 corridor northward could be severe. Temperatures will be above average, and when factoring in humidity, the Apparent Temperature/Heat Index will be in the mid to upper 90s across much of the region through this weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Portions of the Withlacoochee, Ochlockonee, and Choctawhatchee river basins continue to remain in minor flood as they drain from last weeks storms. Some points along the Ochlockonee could fall below flood stage this morning. With the Withlacoochee slowly draining into the Suwanee, we could see some rises reaching minor flooding on portions of the Suwanee in the coming week. Overall, outside of the possible points along the Suwanee reaching flood in the next week, no other river basins are expected to reach flood stage this week. Widespread rainfall totals over the next 7 days will generally remain around 0.5 inches or less, with portions of SE Alabama potentially reaching 1 inch of QPF in the next week. This amount of rainfall is hydrologically insignificant, and will not lead to additional riverine flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 92 72 93 / 0 20 0 0 Panama City 75 87 74 86 / 10 10 10 0 Dothan 71 91 72 92 / 20 30 20 0 Albany 71 90 72 92 / 20 30 20 10 Valdosta 70 92 72 94 / 10 30 0 10 Cross City 69 90 71 92 / 0 10 0 0 Apalachicola 75 86 75 85 / 0 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM....LF AVIATION...HGX/Self