155
FXUS62 KTAE 010526
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
126 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

The main update to tonight`s forecast was fine-tuning rain
chances based on current trends. Evening vapor imagery shows a
well- defined shortwave trough moving towards the MS/TN Valley
forcing an area of showers and thunderstorms just to the west of
our service area. Remnant outflow boundaries from this preceding
convection aims to be a focus for redevelopment of thunderstorm
clusters (some of which could be strong to severe) into the
western FL Panhandle and parts of SE AL by daybreak.

The main threats are strong/gusty winds with isolated severe
gusts possible. Locally heavy rain is an additional concern. Hi-
resolution models and CAMs are in good agreement on the
spatial/temporal coverage. Quiet weather should prevail mainly
east of the Apalachicola River should where ridging influence is
more prominent.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Upper-level ridging, currently near the AL/GA border, will
continue pushing across the local area through the period. This
ridge will strengthen and become more amplified late tonight and
into tomorrow as it approaches and moves into the western
Atlantic. Subsidence from this ridge should keep PoPs low for the
remainder of the day and into the evening hours, although a few
isolated sea breeze showers/storms cannot be ruled out. Highs
today will reach the upper 80s to low 90s, with a few locations
over the Florida Panhandle reaching the mid 90s.

As we head into tonight, a shortwave trough is expected to move into
the Lower Mississippi River Valley, with several shortwave impulses
riding along the base of the trough. The best large-scale forcing
should remain to the west of the local area due to the presence of
the nearby ridge, however, maintained 20-30% PoPs for locations over
southeast Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle to account for
the uncertainty of how far east the storms will develop during the
overnight hours.

The main wave of showers and storms is expected to move into the
region Saturday morning and into the afternoon hours as the ridge
continues its eastward progression and the shortwave trough moves
into the Tennessee River Valley. Highest convective coverage should
remain confined to the western half of the region, as the eastern
half remains under the influence of the ridge. Ongoing storms over
Alabama/Mississippi should begin to organize into multicellular
clusters and eventually into an MCS as deep-layer shear begins to
increase and punch into the developing storms. CAPE values should
also generally increase to around 1500 to 2500 J/kg during the
morning as well. Therefore, cannot rule out storms capable of
producing severe winds in excess of 60 mph. Due to this risk, a
marginal risk of severe storms is in place across the Central Time
Zone counties. At this point, due to the developing LLJ remaining
well to the north (and therefore weak low level shear in place), no
tornadoes are expected. Additionally, storms will also be capable of
producing high rainfall rates which could lead to some localized or
nuisance type flooding especially given the high PWATs and slower
storm motions.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to low 70s. Highs
tomorrow will range from the low to mid 80s over the west due to the
widespread rainfall and cloud cover, and the mid to upper 80s, to
around 90 for the eastern half of the region. /96

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

An upper trof which extends from near the Great Lakes to the north
central Gulf coast gradually weakens while continuing into the
western Atlantic during the period, with a series of shortwaves
meanwhile progressing across the area. A surface ridge over the
southeastern states weakens through Monday night but nevertheless
maintains a moist southerly flow over the forecast area, with
precipitable water values of 1.5-1.75 inches slowly increasing to
1.75-2.0 inches. For Saturday night, have gone with dry conditions
over the eastern portion of the area with slight chance to chance
pops over the western portion. Chance to likely pops follow for
Sunday as deep layer moisture gradually improves along with a
continuing series of shortwaves moving across the area. Mostly
slight chance pops follow for Monday as the series of shortwaves
look to weaken. May see a few strong storms develop early
Saturday evening. Lows Saturday night through Monday night
typically range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs on Sunday
will be in the mid to upper 80s and highs on Monday will be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. A high risk of rip currents is
expected for Saturday night through Monday. /29

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

An upper trof over the northern and central Plains steadily
amplifies while spreading into the eastern states, and an associated
surface low passes well to the north and brings a weak cold front
through the forecast area Thursday night, although there is the
potential for the front to stall near the coast. Plenty of deep
layer moisture remains in place over the forecast area through
Thursday, then drier air works into the area on Friday with
precipitable water values looking to drop to 1.2-1.7 inches, with
the lower values over interior areas. Forcing looks to be limited
over the area Tuesday and Wednesday so have gone with mostly
slight chance pops. Slight chance to chance pops follow for most
of the area on Thursday and Friday as the front approaches and
moves into, possibly through the area. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SHRA/TSRA is expected to increase in coverage across southern
Alabama in the overnight hours then approach DHN/ECP in the
morning hours from 14-20Z. Strong winds and heavy rainfall
resulting in tempo MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible during
this time frame. Further east, it may make it into TLH in the late
afternoon hours but will be on a weakening trend by the time it
arrives. Added a PROB30 to account for this at TLH. At ABY/VLD,
convection will either be located south of ABY through the day or
dissipate west of VLD to keep conditions VFR and no mention of
convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 933 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting light east to SE winds with 2-3 ft
seas and a dominant period of 5 sec this evening. Forecast marine
winds were increased overnight by using a blend of the CAMS/HRRR,
which show solid 20 to 22+ kts of surging easterly winds starting
at Apalachee Bay around 3Z, then spreading west towards the
remaining waters as we approach dawn. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect until 15Z.

From CWF Synopsis...Winds become predominately southeasterly and
strengthen overnight to advisory levels via an easterly nocturnal
surge then diminish on Saturday. A light to moderate
southeasterly to southerly flow prevails for Sunday through
Tuesday, then a southwesterly flow develops on Wednesday. Showers
and thunderstorms are likely at times late tonight through
Saturday, mainly over the northeast Gulf waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Isolated to numerous showers and storms are expected on Saturday,
with the higher coverage generally over south central Alabama and
portions of the western Florida panhandle. Afternoon relative
humidity values remain above critical levels. Transport winds will
be mostly southeasterly Saturday and southerly on Sunday.
Dispersion index values will be generally good to good on Saturday
and fair to generally good Sunday. /29

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  89  69  91 /  10  40  10  20
Panama City   72  86  72  87 /  30  50  10  20
Dothan        67  87  69  89 /  20  50  10  20
Albany        68  87  68  89 /  10  40  10  20
Valdosta      67  89  68  91 /  10  30  10  20
Cross City    67  91  68  92 /  10  20  10  20
Apalachicola  74  84  73  86 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this
     morning for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning
     for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DiCarlo
SHORT TERM...Eversole
LONG TERM....Eversole
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...DiCarlo
FIRE WEATHER...Eversole
HYDROLOGY...Eversole