309
FXUS62 KTAE 310747
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
347 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Easterly winds are expected to become more southeasterly through
tonight with a weak stationary front draped across the northeastern
portions of the area. Fairly zonal flow is expected aloft with a
tiny bit of ridging possibly suppressing any shower and thunderstorm
development over the eastern Big Bend and GA. A few showers and
storms may be able to develop across the FL Panhandle along the
seabreeze this afternoon. If storms are able to develop, forecast
soundings show an inverted V and DCAPE values around 800-900 J/kg,
which indicate a potential gusty wind threat. Highs this afternoon
are forecast in the upper 80s north of the stationary front to the
mid 90s across Florida. Lows tonight are forecast in the mid 60s to
low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Saturday`s forecast is kind of a mess, meaning it`s highly
dependent on where outflow boundaries set up. An approaching
shortwave from the lower Mississippi Valley will lift
northeastward into the Tennessee Valley by late Saturday
afternoon. Meanwhile, ongoing MCSs off to our west may send
outflow boundaries toward our area or just west. These boundaries
in concert with the approaching shortwave will be the focus for
renewed thunderstorm development. The evolution of the storms on
Saturday is highly uncertain given the placement of these
mesoscale features. Regardless, it appears the better chance for
rain Saturday will be over the Central Time Zone counties,
decreasing farther to the east. Some of the storms Saturday could
be strong to possibly severe with damaging winds being the primary
severe hazard. Instability will be sufficient with about 20-30 kt
deep layer shear (which is sufficient for summer-like severe
setups). Thus, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined the
Central Time Zone counties in a Marginal Risk of severe weather
(level 1 of 5) for Saturday. Additionally, PWATs will climb into
the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range, providing ample moisture for a
localized flash flood threat in the heavier downpours. Highs will
be cloud- cooled with highs in the mid-80s to lower 90s. Lows
will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Another shortwave approaches on Sunday, bringing another day of
good rain chances to the area, especially over western parts of
the forecast area. The environment doesn`t appear as favorable for
strong storms, but sufficient moisture will remain in place for
some efficient rain producers. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

We`ll remain in a pattern of northwesterly flow with some weak
shortwaves passing near our area. With abundant moisture remaining
in place, daily rain chances will remain around 20 to 30% through
the end of the period. With the lower rain chances, highs will
climb back to the lower to middle 90s through the week. A cold
front will approach the area toward the end of the week, which
could help boost rain chances later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A few showers and
storms will be possible along the seabreeze this afternoon, with
the best chances across the FL Panhandle near KECP.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Easterly winds will become southeasterly later today and tonight.
Winds will increase to near advisory levels tonight as a strong
nocturnal easterly surge moves across our waters. Seas will also
build to 3 to 5 feet tonight. Winds and seas will subside
Saturday afternoon then become light by Monday. Some showers and
thunderstorms are possible late tonight through Sunday, though
timing of these showers and storms is a bit uncertain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Rain chances begin to increase today into Saturday as moisture
slowly returns to the area. High dispersions will be possible this
afternoon due to very high mixing heights and slightly breezy
transport winds. A seabreeze is expected to develop near the coast
each afternoon before moving inland.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Some locally downpours are possible in the storms through the
weekend. While widespread totals over the next 3 days generally
will be around 0.5 to 1 inch over the western areas, tapering
farther east, localized totals in the Florida Panhandle and
southeast Alabama could be as much as 2 to 4 inches. If these
higher-end amounts materialize, then some localized nuisance
flooding could occur. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined
parts of southeast Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle in a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4). Regardless,
impacts of local rivers should be minimal.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  70  88  69 /  20  10  20  10
Panama City   92  75  85  72 /  20  20  40  20
Dothan        90  69  85  68 /  20  10  40  20
Albany        89  67  87  67 /  10   0  10  10
Valdosta      90  66  89  67 /  10   0  10  10
Cross City    93  66  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
Apalachicola  86  77  84  74 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to
     11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-
     770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Young