Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
246 FXUS62 KTAE 272312 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 712 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 352 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Currently, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9PM CDT / 10PM EDT for all of our southeast AL counties and the majority of our southwest GA counties excluding the southern most tier from Seminole to Lowndes counties and Lanier. Analysis shows an boundary set up just north of Macon, back into southeast AL with convection firing to the south of it. The SPC mesoanalysis has decent conditions for severe weather development today over the watch area, favoring damaging winds and hail, though an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Most CAMs have convection ending between sunset and shortly after midnight, with a cold front moving through overnight. This will mostly usher in some drier air and shift winds to the northwest and north. Overnight lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 70s, and tomorrow another toasty day is on tap with highs in the low 90s across southeast AL and southwest GA, and the low to mid 90s for the FL counties. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 352 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A late season "cold" front will slowly push through the region Tuesday evening through Wednesday, perhaps lowering our afternoon highs by a whopping degree or two across our SE AL and SW GA counties compared to Tuesdays highs. What this cold front will serve to do is bring our afternoon dewpoints back down into the mid to upper 50s inland and 60s along the coast which will make the air feel a tad more pleasant. Regarding rain and thunderstorm potential, chances appear quite low as notably dry air overspreads the region with the weak cold front. The seabreeze is expected to propagate inland in the afternoon hours which would normally serve as just enough forcing for a few isolated storms, though PWAT`s generally less than 1.5" aren`t too encouraging for Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows Wednesday morning will generally stay around the mid- 60s inland and low 70s along the FL coastline with high temperatures reaching the 90s in the afternoon. Some locations in the westernmost FL Big Bend may see temperatures in the upper 90s. Low temperatures going into Thursday morning will once again remain in the mid to upper 60s with 70s along the FL coastline. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 352 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Predominantly west-northwest flow aloft with a couple weak disturbances will occur through the long term forecast. Surface high pressure initially situated over the Ohio Valley will slide south over the Southeastern US by Saturday providing easterly surface flow. Moisture return shouldn`t be overly rigorous, especially given the variable nature of the surface winds before they become due easterly around Saturday. PWAT`s do see a slight recovery sitting mostly around 1.5-1.8" through the period. Given the active seabreeze regime, particularly through the weekend, opted to keep PoPs in the 20-30% range as isolated thunderstorms appear possible across the area. High temperatures may see a slight decrease through the long term forecast given easterly flow, starting in the mid to upper 80s across SE AL and SW GA with low to mid 90s across our FL counties on Thursday. Going into the weekend, high temperatures could possibly drop back into the upper 80s areawide. Low temperatures through the period will generally stay within the 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 711 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Tonight, MVFR visibilities and thunderstorms are possible across all sites. Thunderstorms will be likely from 00-06Z across all sites with highest confidence at KABY, KDHN, and KVLD. There is some uncertainty regarding visibilities at KDHN and lower visibilities may be possible locally. VFR conditions should resume by 13Z across all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 352 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Generally gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly breezes will continue this evening before becoming light out of the northwest. Winds will mostly be light and variable through the period with the exception of the seabreeze each afternoon in our nearshore waters. High pressure will build in this weekend which will clock winds to due easterly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 352 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 The main fire weather concerns will be high dispersions on Tuesday, area wide, and Wednesday for areas along and east of the Chattahoochee and Apalachicola rivers. Outside of that, for the rest of today showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the region. Currently, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of our southeast AL and the majority of our southwest GA counties, excluding the southern most tier of counties from Seminole to Lowndes, and then Lanier. Damaging winds and hail are the primary concerns, though an isolated tornado may be possible. After today, dry weather is then forecast through mid week. MinRH values will be a bit varied, around 30-40% for much of the region through the week, with good overnight recovery. | && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 352 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 New flooding along the Suwannee River is possible this week, as last weeks floodwaters on the Withlacoochee slowly route downstream through the Suwannee. However, 7-day river forecasts for the Suwannee have been gradually been trending down with the respective crests from Branford down to Manatee Springs. Though minor flooding is still the forecast a few days from now, this seems to become less certain with each forecast update. Generally no problematic rainfall is expected through the forecast with generally less than an inch expected, though some isolated stronger storms could produce 1-3" in some areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 94 69 94 / 30 10 0 0 Panama City 75 92 71 91 / 30 0 0 0 Dothan 70 91 67 91 / 40 0 0 0 Albany 69 91 65 89 / 50 0 0 0 Valdosta 72 92 67 91 / 50 10 0 0 Cross City 73 92 68 95 / 30 30 0 10 Apalachicola 76 90 73 88 / 20 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ Tuesday for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KR SHORT TERM...Worster LONG TERM....Worster AVIATION...Worster MARINE...Worster FIRE WEATHER...KR HYDROLOGY...Worster