Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
813 FXUS62 KTBW 290728 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 328 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 In the upper levels, a long wave trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern US will gradually deepen through the rest of the week as a shortwave rounds the base of the trough. At the surface, the recent cold front will gradually dissipate as it lingers over the Florida Peninsula today and Thursday, with drier air filling in across the forecast area. This will lead to only isolated afternoon showers or storms expected over southwest Florida each day. Temperatures will remain warm through Friday, with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 90s over the interior, and upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. On Friday, as the upper level trough deepens along the eastern seaboard, a backdoor cold front will move southwest through Florida and stall south of Florida during the weekend and early next week. This will drop temperatures a few degrees to near to slightly above normal levels, and increase atmospheric moisture. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible each afternoon Friday through early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Some patchy fog will be possible this morning, but is largely forecast to remain over the Nature Coast and north of area TAF sites. VFR conditions should then hold through at least the morning. Isolated showers and storms are expected this afternoon, with the greatest chances over southwest Florida, near KRSW and KFMY, however, rain chances are not high enough to mention in the TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 High pressure will build back into the waters from the north through the rest of the week, then shift east into the Atlantic this weekend. Rain chances will increase Friday through the weekend as a weak cold front pushes south through the waters. Winds and seas will generally remain less than headline criteria outside of thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Some patchy fog will be possible over the Nature Coast this morning. A dry airmass will hold over the area today and Thursday, with relative humidity dropping to critically low levels across much of the area each afternoon. However, 20 foot wind speeds are not forecast to be fast enough to cause Red Flag conditions. High dispersion indices are expected each of the next couple of afternoons. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 95 75 96 75 / 20 10 20 20 GIF 97 72 97 72 / 10 0 10 10 SRQ 94 74 94 76 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 96 66 97 67 / 0 0 10 0 SPG 93 79 94 80 / 0 0 10 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Fleming