Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
978 FXXX10 KWNP 060031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jun 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 06-Jun 08 2024 is 3.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 06-Jun 08 2024 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 00-03UT 2.00 1.67 2.00 03-06UT 1.67 1.33 1.67 06-09UT 1.33 1.33 1.33 09-12UT 1.00 1.67 1.33 12-15UT 1.33 1.33 2.00 15-18UT 1.33 1.67 3.00 18-21UT 1.33 1.33 3.00 21-00UT 1.67 1.33 3.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 06-Jun 08 2024 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 S1 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 08 Jun, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3697. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jun 05 2024 0856 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 06-Jun 08 2024 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: Occasional R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for isolated R3 (Strong) Radio Blackouts through 08 Jun.