656
FXUS65 KTFX 181955
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
155 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain showers will affect the Cut Bank and Havre areas
overnight tonight, while rain and snow showers become more
widespread on Sunday across Central and Southwest MT. Expect
showers early in the week, with a better chance for widespread
rain and mountain snow by the middle of the work week. Overall,
temperatures will generally be below normal across the area
through the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...Scattered light rain showers will affect
the Hi-line area tonight, with a rumble of thunder also possible.
On Sunday, the precipitation becomes a bit more widespread over
Central and Southwest MT. Snow levels will fall to about 3500 feet
on Sunday morning. Any snow accumulations will be in the mountain,
mostly above 7000 feet. Since most areas will receive less than 2
inches of snow, and the snowfall will occur during the day, no
winter highlights are planned for at this time. Afternoon
temperatures will continue the cooling trend on Sunday as well.

Monday and Tuesday...An upper level trof will be trying to develop
over MT early next week. This will result in unsettled conditions
and the chances for light showers to continue Mon/Tue.
Temperatures will warm a touch each day Mon/Tue.

Wednesday through Saturday...There is the potential for another
spring storm to affect a good portion of the CWA next Wed/Thu.
Some forecast models prog over 1 inch of QPF over the Southern
Rocky Mountain Front and Central Montana during this period.
However, the latest NBM only has a 20 percent chance of 1 inch of
rainfall in these areas. It does look like it will be cold enough
for snow as well, mostly above 6500 feet. Snow accumulations could
approach 10 inches or snow near the peaks, and a winter highlight
might be needed for portions of the CWA. As we go into Memorial
Day weekend next weekend, there is some uncertainty of how
widespread the precipitation will be, but it is looking likely
that showers will be affecting portions of the CWA next weekend.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
18/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail across much of the CWA through
tonight. The exception will be in the Northern Rockies and the
Cut Bank area where a passing shower/thunderstorm could move
through late this afternoon/evening. Surface winds will gust near
35 knots at times this afternoon over Central and North Central
MT. On Sunday morning, showers will become more widespread over
Central and Southwest MT with low IFR ceilings possible at times.
Mountains/passes will become obscured at times this afternoon over
the Northern Rockies and tomorrow morning over Central/Southwest
MT. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  56  35  59 /  20  80  40  60
CTB  32  55  34  57 /  20  80  30  60
HLN  42  58  37  61 /  40  60  20  60
BZN  36  54  33  57 /  20  70  30  70
WYS  35  53  26  50 /  20  50  20  60
DLN  35  53  32  55 /  10  40  20  50
HVR  38  60  38  60 /  10  70  20  40
LWT  37  52  32  54 /  20  80  30  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls