766
FXUS65 KTFX 300642
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1240 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

After a few showers and thunderstorms across Southwestern Montana
this afternoon and evening, drier weather is expected to push into
North Central and Southwestern Montana for the rest of the week.
Expect highs to generally be seasonable across the area, with
most lower elevations seeing highs gradually warm from near 60 on
Thursday to the low to mid 70s for the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...

No significant updates were needed this evening. Most showers have
exited eastward, with any lingering showers moving out over the
next few hours. There appears a low end chance for overnight
showers, primarily along and adjacent to the I-90 corridor. The
only change worth noting was to add a patchy fog mention in areas
where confidence was at least moderate that skies would clear and
winds would be light where rain fell today. -AM

&&


.AVIATION...

30/06Z TAF Period

VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least 31/06Z
across North Central (KCTB, KHVR), Central (KLWT, KGTF, KHLN), and
Southwest (KBZN, KEKS, KWYS) Montana, unless otherwise noted.

Areas of mid- and high-level cloudiness will move over the area in a
moderate northwest flow aloft through at least 00Z. A few lingering
showers over a portion of Central Montana (mainly in the KHLN area,
and possibly in the KBZN area) may produce wind gusts to 30 kt
through around 09Z. Patchy fog in some southwest valleys (including
KWYS) could reduce conditions to MVFR/IFR between 10Z and 16Z. The
winds aloft will cause mountain wave turbulence through the period,
as well as some low level wind shear (especially in the KLWT area)
until the westerly surface winds mix down to the surface again after
12Z. A disturbance in the flow aloft will bring a chance of showers
to portions of North Central Montana (mainly in the KHVR area
between 18Z and 00Z. Winds and clouds should generally decrease
after 01Z. -Coulston

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024/

Key Points:

-A few thunderstorms are expected across Southwestern Montana
this afternoon and early evening, some of which may bring gusty
winds and a heavy downpour

-Cooler and drier through the weekend

Short Term (through Thursday)... A cold front continues to push
through Southwestern Montana this afternoon, which has been the
focal point for showers and even a few strong thunderstorms this
afternoon that have brought some localized accumulating hail.
Further north across the Plains, cooler and drier air have
continued to work into the area, which has resulted in most areas
seeing highs some 15-20 degrees cooler than they were yesterday.
For the rest of the day today, expect showers and thunderstorms to
continue across Southwestern Montana as they gradually shift off
to the east, bringing briefly heavy rain, gusty winds, and small
hail as they move eastward, while the plains will see skies
gradually clear.

Thursday will be a fairly quiet weather day, with just a few rain
showers across the Hi Line along with some breezy winds as the
cool and dry air continues to push in from the north and west. We
will have to watch for some rises on streams and creeks across
Southwestern Montana as todays rainfall makes its way downstream,
but widespread flooding is not expected at this time. Ludwig

Friday through next Wednesday... A weak high pressure ridge is
forecast to move into the area on Friday, bringing at least one
day of drier conditions, lighter winds, and a return to near
normal temperatures. Model clusters indicate that a more
progressive westerly flow pattern will develop for the weekend
into the middle of next week, but there is some disagreement on
when the disturbances will move through the area. As a result, the
NBM keeps the area slightly warmer than normal with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms each day, especially over the mountain
areas of Central and Southwest Montana. -Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  61  38  68 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  38  59  37  65 /  10  20   0   0
HLN  42  63  39  70 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  34  59  33  67 /  50  10   0   0
WYS  30  53  29  62 /  70  10   0   0
DLN  34  59  33  69 /  20   0   0   0
HVR  42  63  41  67 /  10  50  10  10
LWT  37  57  34  63 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls