509
FXUS63 KTOP 200524
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1224 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storm potential continues for late this afternoon and this
  evening across central and north central Kansas, then across
  northeast and east central Kansas later this evening.


- The potential for severe thunderstorms continues into the
  early portions of the work week with the greatest concern
  still focused into Tuesday afternoon, mainly over northeast
  and into east-central Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

At 19Z, an outflow boundary was observed across west central into
northwest Kansas. Mesoanalysis shows a sharp cut of in surfaced
based CAPE along the boundary. Water vapor satellite shows a mid
level wave moving northeast across northern New Mexico into
Colorado. This wave will continue to move into southwest Kansas
later this afternoon and evening. An approaching mid level 50kt jet
was moving northeast increasing ascent into southwest Kansas at 19Z.
Radar at 19Z had a supercell along the frontal boundary in Trego and
Ellis counties in west central Kansas. Storms were also developing
across southeast Colorado. Instability and shear favor severe storms
with large hail and damaging winds the main hazards. Tornado
potently will be best with storms that form and move along or
cross the frontal boundary where best low level helicity will exist.
The potential for damaging winds also increases as storms form a
into line segments and progress eastward this evening as winds may
approach 80 mph or higher. Initial storms look to move northeast
then turn to the east as the line develops.

The threat will continue across parts of northeast and east central
Kansas later this evening, but if storms become outflow dominant
then the severe potential will decrease. The mid level wave moves
northeast of the forecast area after 06Z with precipitation moving
east through the night and ending from west to east. In addition to
the severe weather, locally heavy rainfall will be possible as
precipitable water remains high, about 1.5 standard deviations
above normal.

A lull is expected on Monday during the day in the wake of tonight`s
system. Storms are forecast to develop in the western Highs Plains
Monday late afternoon and evening. These storms may form a cluster
or MCS and then move eastward across southern Nebraska and northern
Kansas Monday night. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the main
hazards along with locally heavy rainfall.

On Tuesday another chance for severe weather is expected as a mid
level trough and associated cold front move across the central
Plains. The better forcing remains to the north of the area with
northern Kansas on the southern end. Scattered storms may develop
along the frontal boundary in the afternoon into evening hours. All
hazards will be possible with these storms.

Wednesday will be dry and cooler with highs in the 70s. Thursday is
looking dry for much if not all of the area and temps warm back into
the lower 80s. A southwesterly flow across the Plains will lead to
small chances of convection next Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Trending toward VFR conditions as the current storm system
departs the area. Uncertain about afternoon or evening
convection for this cycle. Probability is too low to mention at
this time. Winds should remain generally around 10kts with a
southerly component through the period. Overall probability for
hazardous aviation conditions appear low for this period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...Drake