287
FXUS64 KTSA 261118
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
618 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A couple strong supercells continue across far northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas with the continues threat of all severe
hazards through the early morning hours before shifting off to the
east by sunrise. Following the exit of these storms, a rather hot
and humid day is in store across the region as highs reach into
the 90s. A cold front will drop southeastward through eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas during the afternoon. A few
scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the front,
primarily across northwest Arkansas from mid to late afternoon.
Severe weather will be possible, with large hail the primary
threat.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Cooler and drier weather will filter in behind the front tonight
with lows dropping into the low 60s and upper 50s. A quiet day
looks to be in store for Memorial Day on Monday as subtle mid
level and surface ridging builds into the region. The mid level
ridge then begins to build more into the western CONUS over the
coming week, with a shift in the pattern to northwest flow aloft
over much of the Southern Plains. Daily thunderstorm complexes are
likely to develop across the High Plains and track across the
forecast area nightly Tuesday night through Thursday night.
Locally heavy rainfall will be the primary concern, with some
limited severe potential also likely to accompany any MCS that
moves through the region.

THe unsettles pattern continues into next weekend as we remain on
the periphery of the ridge and increased westerly flow aloft
continues over the area. Daily thunderstorm chances will continue
during this time as well with the warm and moist airmass remaining
in place through the period.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Outflow boundary from decaying storms will likely push into far northeast
Oklahoma this morning before stalling. A brief period of MVFR ceilings
will be possible near boundary, mainly at KBVO, including a few showers.
Gusty southwest winds will develop by mid to late morning ahead of approaching
front/dry line. A few storms will be possible across northwest Arkansas
by mid to late afternoon but overall coverage will be limited. Otherwise,
VFR conditions expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  62  87  62 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   93  67  90  63 /  20  20   0   0
MLC   93  64  89  63 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   88  58  86  58 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   90  60  85  59 /  20  20   0   0
BYV   89  62  84  59 /  20  20   0   0
MKO   91  62  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   87  59  83  59 /  20  10   0   0
F10   92  61  86  62 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   91  65  90  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...12