769
FXUS64 KTSA 030528
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 725 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The MCS that moved through southeast OK earlier this afternoon and
evening is on it`s way out. An area of moderate rainfall in the
trailing stratiform region (as well as a few sporadic lightning
strikes) will move east and out of the area by 9 PM or so.
Conditions are then expected to remain quiet and dry for most
areas into the overnight hours.

There is a boundary along the northern track of the earlier MCS
with warmer and more humid (and therefore more unstable) air from
roughly Tulsa down through Fort Smith. Areas to the north and east
of this boundary will have a better chance of shower and
thunderstorm development overnight as another wave of showers and
storms moves into the area. CAM guidance mostly targets this same
area. The main impacts would be gusty winds, heavy rain, and
lightning. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s to the low
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The ongoing active weather pattern looks to persist into early to
mid week, followed by a couple of quieter days late week and an
increasingly active next weekend.

Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across parts of
southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas at daybreak Monday,
which should continue to move eastward through the remainder of
the morning. Any redevelopment in the afternoon looks to mainly
focus across southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, if the
mid level disturbance has not shifted northeast of the area by
then. In general, decreasing shower and thunderstorm chances can
be expected Monday afternoon and evening as the disturbance pulls
away. There may be an uptick in coverage early Tuesday morning as
another disturbance moves through quickly on the heels of the
previous one.

The most notable shower and thunderstorm chances remain likely to
arrive Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning in response to a
front moving into the region from the north. High instability to
the south of the front and sufficient deep layer shear will
support a threat for severe weather, especially during the evening
hours Tuesday.

The quieter period will arrive late week behind the front,
persisting through Friday. Northwest flow aloft next weekend will
support overnight thunderstorm complexes that develop in the High
Plains moving into the area, beginning Friday night and early
Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The potential for MVFR cigs and storms during the morning hours at
the TAF sites is the main forecast concern. CAMs suggest storms
will begin to develop around 12Z near the NE OK and KFSM sites.
With the idea that confidence in this scenario is higher, TEMPOs
were used. Farther east into NW AR more uncertainty exists and
therefore used PROB30 mention. There`s also a chance that an MCS
will sweep in from the northwest during the morning hours as
well. MVFR cigs are expected to most sites toward 12Z, with cigs
rising back to VFR by midday or early afternoon. Storm chances
will be winding down during the afternoon also and should be too
low to mention thru the end of the forecast.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  71  87  69 /  60  30  10  70
FSM   86  72  87  72 /  70  50  20  60
MLC   83  71  86  72 /  50  30  10  50
BVO   82  68  85  65 /  60  30  10  70
FYV   83  68  84  67 /  70  40  20  70
BYV   83  67  84  67 /  70  40  30  70
MKO   81  71  85  69 /  60  40  10  70
MIO   81  68  84  67 /  70  40  20  80
F10   82  70  86  69 /  50  20  10  70
HHW   83  71  86  72 /  50  20  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...30