242
FXUS64 KTSA 011029
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
529 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

NW flow prevails aloft, upstream from a shortwave trough over
MO/AR. Storms that are currently going over western KS will make a
run at us, but are expected to dissipate before reaching eastern
OK. With mostly clear skies, cool and relatively moist conditions
in place, some fog has developed across the region. Some of this
fog may be locally dense, but currently not widespread enough to
warrant any headlines. With the shortwave trough now east of us,
we should see more sun, warmer and mainly dry conditions today.
There are some hints of isolated storm chances mainly over central
OK so included some low PoPs mainly west of highway 75 for the
afternoon and early evening.

Indications are that storms developing over the High Plains this
afternoon will make a run at us again tonight, with better
success due to some uptick in westerly flow aloft. PoPs/thunder
probs trend upward especially from Tulsa to the north and west by
late tonight.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Some storms are expected to be ongoing Sunday morning across
mainly NE OK. By afternoon, coverage looks more widely scattered
with hints of a weak convective-induced vort max sliding overhead.
Another shortwave trough is expected to slide across the central
Plains Sunday/Sunday night, forcing a boundary down that will
focus a relative max in storm chances across the north and east
toward Monday morning. Outflow from these storms could fire more
activity Monday afternoon and night. After a relative lull on
Tuesday, a strong shortwave trough is expected to slide across the
north-central US toward the middle of next week on the nose of a
powerful cross-Pacific upper jet. This will force an initial
frontal boundary into the area late Tuesday into Wednesday, with
another reinforcing front pushing thru Thursday. With strong NW
flow aloft in place over the Plains south of deep cyclonic flow
centered over the Great Lakes, models are starting to suggest a
period of active nighttime MCS activity beginning Friday night.
We`ll just have to wait and see.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Areas of fog have developed across much of NE OK and portions of
NW AR this morning with flight impacts into LIFR levels at times.
Expectation is for a slow improvement after sunrise becoming MVFR
to VFR levels from mid to late morning. Any afternoon storms are
expected to remain too isolated to warrant mention. Additional
storms will attempt to move into the region late tonight however
most guidance remains pessimistic on eastward extent and thus no
mention at this time. Patchy light fog again possible tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  67  88  71 /  10  10  30  30
FSM   86  67  89  72 /   0  10  30  20
MLC   86  67  87  71 /  10  10  30  30
BVO   83  64  86  68 /  10  20  40  40
FYV   83  62  85  68 /  10  10  30  20
BYV   81  61  86  67 /  20  10  20  20
MKO   83  66  86  70 /  10  10  30  30
MIO   81  64  85  68 /   0  10  40  30
F10   85  66  86  70 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   85  67  86  70 /  20   0  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07