Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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183 FXUS64 KTSA 201839 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 139 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of this afternoon ) Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Warm, humid, but otherwise quiet weather is in store for the remainder of today and tonight. There will be plenty of potential instability, but a capping inversion should keep convection from initiating. High temperatures will peak this afternoon in the 80s to low 90s, decreasing to the upper 60s to low 70s overnight. A breezy southerly wind will be present for much of the short term period. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A shortwave trough will pass to the north of the area on Tuesday with good height falls, implying broad lift over the area. Additionally, a strong upper level jet will be positioned to allow for good mid to upper level divergence across the area. Lower down, decent convergence along a surface boundary will further aid in promoting lift. Strong wind shear will be present, focusing in the mid levels. These factors will come into play with a very warm and unstable atmosphere, with 3000-4000 J of MLCAPE and PWAT values approaching 1.5". These values are climatologically unusual with the EPS EFI for CAPE-Shear showing values of 0.7 to 0.8. Most of the moisture will be concentrated in the lower levels, with the specific humidity in the surface to 850 hPa layer near the 99th percentile for this time of year. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front during the late afternoon or evening. However, CAMs are uncertain with respect to where and when these storms will be able to get going, which mostly stems back to differences in how quickly the capping inversion is broken. Wherever storms do develop, they will certainly have the potential to become severe. With that in mind, storms will likely initiate in northeast OK in the late afternoon or early evening, initially as discrete or semi-discrete cells. Storms will then congeal and move into east-central OK and northwest AR in the late evening and overnight hours. Discrete storms will have the potential for all severe hazards, including hail, wind, tornadoes, and heavy rain. As storms grow upscale, the threat for hail will diminish and wind will increase. There is some question of convective coverage, with most models not showing storms everywhere. Accordingly, kept Pops mostly in the 50-70% range for northeast OK and northwest AR, with somewhat lower Pops to the south. The cold front driving Tuesday`s storms will sag south, settling across southeast OK or perhaps northern Texas on Wednesday. Temperatures will be much cooler north of this boundary, with highs in the low to mid 70s for many locations. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to focus along the boundary, but guidance shows the potential for elevated storms to develop well to the north, even into northeast OK and northwest AR. Model soundings show MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/Kg, so severe hail would be possible with any storms. Closer to the boundary across southeast OK, locally heavy rainfall will promote a flash flood potential for some areas. The cold front lifts back north on Thursday, now as a warm front, with climatologically unusual instability, wind shear, and low level moisture. Model guidance again produces widespread showers and thunderstorms, with the strongest signal across southeast OK into west-central AR. A few severe storms will remain possible considering the strong instability and sufficient flow for supercell development, but at this lead time it`s difficult to pin down details. The same general pattern will persist through Sunday with additional storm chances and daily severe weather probabilities. The exact details will become more clear as we get closer. Southwest USA ridging may finally build in early next week leading to a warming trend, though if typical MCS activity develops, temperatures would be slower to warm than models are currently indicating. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through the period with some scattered cumulus around this afternoon. Southerly winds will also be gusty this afternoon and then again tomorrow. Some low level wind shear could impact some terminals tonight, but have left out of mention for now due to uncertainty. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 73 89 62 74 / 0 20 60 60 FSM 71 90 72 82 / 0 10 50 80 MLC 72 87 71 81 / 0 20 40 80 BVO 70 89 59 73 / 0 20 60 50 FYV 68 86 66 79 / 0 20 70 80 BYV 68 88 65 77 / 0 10 60 80 MKO 71 87 67 77 / 0 20 60 80 MIO 71 87 60 72 / 0 30 80 70 F10 72 86 67 76 / 0 20 50 70 HHW 69 86 74 84 / 0 10 20 70 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...04