702
FXUS65 KTWC 302129
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
229 PM MST Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will run above normal over the next
seven days as we close out May and begin June.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies prevail across southeast Arizona this
afternoon with sunny, warm, and dry conditions at the surface.
Typical breeziness from strong daytime heating is anticipated
through the afternoon. A few terrain driven cloud buildups may
develop this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon over the White
Mountains.

Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer as shortwave ridging fills in
behind a weak upper level trof exiting the Great Basin today.
Confidence is growing that there will be additional warming the
second half of next week resulting in increased heat risk concerns.
Most recent NBM probabilities for the 1st 105 degree high of 2024 in
Tucson next Thu/Fri is in the 25%-30% range. The high end of the
temperature spread in the ECMWF ensembles next Thu/Fri is hotter
versus GEFS/GEPS with even a potential of reaching 110 in Tucson.

Model ensembles also continue to hint at noticeable moisture
increase the second half of next week. Southerly flow developing
between an upper low off the Baja coast and the strong ridge of
high pressure to our east will advect some moisture north.
Depending on how strong this flow is, there could be sufficient
moisture in place for dry thunderstorms in the White Mountains
next Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 01/00Z.
SKC conditions then evolving into a FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL
aft 31/04Z. SWLY-WLY SFC winds in the afternoons, generally under
10kts with the occasional wind gust up to 20 kts. Otherwise, light
and variable overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and high temperatures 2-5 degrees
above normal will continue through early next week. Expect min RH
values of 3-8 percent in the lower elevations and 8-15 percent in
the mountains the next 7 days, with poor overnight recoveries
between 20-30 percent in most locations. 20-foot winds will follow
typical diurnal patterns through the weekend, with afternoon/early
evening gustiness due to strong surface heating. Sustained 20-foot
wind speeds will generally be 15 mph or less, except for the
potential for some elevated winds at 15-20 mph Sunday afternoon east
of Tucson.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Public...Van Stratten
Aviation...Giralte
Fire Weather....Van Stratten

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