766
FNUS73 KUNR 231318
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Pesla/Reynolds Ranch Slash Pile Burn...Rosebud Agency
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
718 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on May 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A storm system moving through the region today will bring
chances for showers and storms as well as gusty winds to the forecast area.

Winds today will be predominately out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph, gusting
to 31 mph. Winds will shift to the west by 6 pm MDT. There are
chances for showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Expect gusty and erratic
winds near any storms. Afternoon RHs will drop to 30 percent with maximum
temperatures at 55.

A frontal passage late this afternoon will bring colder air into the region
with lows tonight dropping to 28. Excellent RH recovery with maximum RHs
overnight rising to 96 percent. There is a chance for rain/snow showers this
evening with a slight chance for thunderstorms. Rain will transition fully over
to snow overnight as colder air moves in. Winds will be out of the northwest
at 20 to 25 with gusts to around 38 mph.

Unsettled conditions continue into Friday with chances for rain/snow showers
in the morning. Winds will be out of the northwest in the morning before
shifting to the west after noon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the morning, then chance
                    of rain showers and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around
31 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Winds will shift
to the west by 6 pm MDT.
CWR.................30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......7700 to 8200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 40 mph increasing to around 55
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain/snow showers
likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
evening, then chance of snow showers overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 28.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds will shift from the west to northwest by 7 pm.
Winds will be at 20 to 25 mph with gusts to around 38 mph.
Expect gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
CWR.................50 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2400, then 1.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1300 to 1800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 50 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers and snow showers in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds will shift to the west after noon.
Winds will be at 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 36 mph
decreasing to 25 mph after noon.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......7800 to 8300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 25 to 35 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

$$
Forecaster...EW
Requested by...Bert Shields
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414997.0/UNR
.DELDT 05/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kyle.golus14@gmail.com