Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
879 FXUS65 KVEF 231936 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1236 PM PDT Thu May 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Expect seasonal temperatures to continue through the weekend with periods of gusty winds, particularly on Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. The southern Great Basin and Sierra could see a few showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday but most areas will remain dry. High pressure builds in over the area on Memorial Day bringing warmer, above normal temperatures to the area. && .SHORT TERM...Friday through Saturday. A broad upper level trough is in place over the western United States for the next few days. On Friday into Friday night, a shortwave will rotate around this pattern and result in increased winds and moisture for the forecast area. An 850 mb low level jet with peak wind speeds around 50 knots develops on Friday in southeastern California. Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds respond at the surface in San Bernardino, Clark, and Mohave counties. The strongest wind gusts will be between 40 and 50 mph in western San Bernardino County including Barstow. A Wind Advisory is in place for that area from 3 PM PDT Friday to 11 AM PDT Saturday. Lesser gusts of 25 to 35 mph can be expected elsewhere. A Lake Wind Advisory has also been issued for Lake Mead, Lake Mohave, and Lake Havasu on Friday afternoon and evening. Gusty winds up to 35 mph could create dangerous boating conditions, especially for smaller boats and watercraft. Extra caution on the lakes is advised. The shortwave exits to the east and the low level jet weakens on Saturday morning, meaning lighter but still breezy winds, especially in San Bernardino County. If the shortwave exit is slower than what the current models are showing, stronger winds could last longer into Saturday afternoon. Lastly, increased winds and low humidity lead to increased fire weather concerns for much of the area. Ensure that chains on vehicles are secured and all campfires are fully extinguished. The shortwave will draw increased moisture towards the forecast area as seen in PWATs 120 to 150 percent of normal for this time of year (.4 to .7 inch). Rain showers and thunderstorms may develop over the southern Great Basin and Sierra on Friday and Saturday with the help of orographic lift over the mountains. Precipitation totals should remain light for any storms that form and the rest of the forecast area will be dry. Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be a few degrees below average for late May, which means highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for the Las Vegas area. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday. The weather pattern will transition from cool northwest flow and upper level troughing to something more typical of late May with a building ridge over the Western US Sunday through the first half of next week. This will mean warming temperatures and drier weather. Temperatures will climb back above normal by Monday and remain there for much of next week. How warm it gets will depend on the exact strength of the ridge and where the ridge axis sets up, which long range models show a few different camps in the exact set up of this ridge as well as how much it will interact with a persistent Pacific Northwest upper level trough. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds through mid afternoon are forecast to become lighter, but also shift more to a east to southeast direction. Wind speeds will generally remain less than 8 knots, but an occasional gust up to 14 knots can`t be completely ruled out through the afternoon. Winds will shift back to the southwest overnight with speeds less than 7 knots. On Friday, winds will being light and variable, but will increase after 18z out of the southwest with speeds 14-24 knots. FEW clouds around 12k feet along with SCT clouds around 25k feet late tonight and Friday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Overall, winds will decrease to 10 knots or less across the region this afternoon with the exception of western San Bernardino County where westerly winds of 15-25 knots will increase late this afternoon and continue into this evening. Most areas will see light winds Friday morning, but southwest winds will increase across the region by late morning and continue through the afternoon. Southwest winds 15-25 knots will be fairly common with a few areas seeing gusts up to 30 knots. FEW-SCT150 and SCT-BKN250 expected Friday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Meltzer LONG TERM...Nickerson AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter