501
FXUS63 KOAX 142007
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
307 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances increase tonight through Wednesday
  night. A Marginal risk of severe weather is present Wednesday
  afternoon into the evening.

- Smoke/haze remains in the area today, causing moderate air
  quality.

- -Spotty precipitation chances are present Friday through
  Monday but confidence remains low, this period probably
  remains drier than wet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Short Range (Today through Thursday)

Despite moderate air quality from Canadian wildfire smoke making its
way into the area, clear skies are present across the region this
afternoon. This is thanks to a ridge axis over the area as we sit
between a departing low pressure system to the southeast and an
incoming disturbance to the west. As a result, we are presented with
north-northwesterly flow aloft. High temperatures are peaking in the
mid to upper 70s across the area.

A shortwave trough traversing across western NE/SD has spun up a
weak surface low over northwestern Nebraska this afternoon with an
associated weak cold front draped across the western portion of the
state. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate along the front over
central Nebraska (west of our CWA) this afternoon before weakening
and moving east. These thunderstorms have the potential to make
their way into our westernmost counties before bringing scattered
rain shower potential (30-50% PoPs) to the rest of the area.

Overnight showers may linger into the early morning hours on
Wednesday before breaking up and bringing high temperatures in the
lower 70s. The aforementioned surface low is expected to track into
eastern SD by tomorrow afternoon with the associated weak cold front
oriented north-south into eastern Nebraska and down into KS/OK. The
front is expected to arrive in the CWA Wednesday afternoon with the
development of scattered and potentially severe thunderstorms.
Buoyancy will be the limiting factor for our severe weather
potential as MLCAPE struggles to increase above 500 J/kg. The SPC
has placed the southern majority of our CWA in a marginal risk for
severe weather including hail up to 1" and wind gusts up to 60 mph
with the initial stronger updrafts. The front will continue its
route eastward through the area Wednesday night into Thursday
morning (PoPs 40-70%). Rainfall totals south of Interstate 80 are
expected between 0.25 and 0.75 in. with values decreasing as you
progress northward.

A couple showers may continue to work their way through the area
Thursday morning before cloud cover breaks up during the afternoon.
The cold front will have minimal effects on Thursday temperature as
highs are expected in the upper 70s.

Long Range (Friday through Monday)

Zonal flow will return towards the end of the work week. A few week
shortwaves traversing the region could bring the potential for light
and scattered rain showers Friday into Saturday. High temperatures
Friday into the weekend are expected to reach into the upper
70s/80s. Saturday may be the warmest day of the week with high
temperatures in the upper 80s.

Our next chance at measurable precipitation looks to be Saturday
night into Sunday morning as a front sweeps across the area. Model
agreement is low on the placement and moisture content of this event
so an eye will be kept on it as it approaches. As of now, PoPs
remain as a widespread 20-30%. Model variability continues to
increase into Monday with the ECMWF bringing widespread showers and
thunderstorms and most GEFS ensemble members leave the majority of
the area dry. PoPs on Monday remain as a widespread 40% as we await
the details to work themselves out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Minor visibility restrictions (MVFR) reported across the area
this morning due to Canadian wildfire smoke has gradually
improved. Haze with minor restrictions may continue into the
afternoon. Northeast winds will remain under 12 kts and
gradually shift clockwise to southeasterly through the forecast
period.

A round of scattered showers and potential thunderstorms will
move into northeast Nebraska this evening. Confidence is present
that this will reach KOFK (05-10Z) but we have opted out of
adding to KLNK and KOMA at this time. A line of thunderstorms
will approach from the west during the final hours of the
forecast period (16Z onwards), likely only reaching KOFK and
KLNK before 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood