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907
FXUS61 KBGM 010631
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
231 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure and dry conditions will continue through tonight.
Spotty showers are possible Sunday, mainly west of I-81. Otherwise,
warmer and mostly quiet conditions are expected through the first
half of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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230 AM Update...

High pressure will remain over the region today. Skies will be
mostly sunny with passing high clouds overhead. Temperatures will
climb into the mid 70s to low 80s. High clouds will move in
overnight as cloud cover gradually increases from the west.
Conditions remain quiet through the overnight hours with
temperatures only falling into the 50s.

A weak shortwave trough moves into the region Sunday as the ridge of
high pressure drifts eastward. This system will have to overcome the
drier air that will linger through at least the morning hours.
Showers that can develop will likely be spotty and mostly limited to
locations west of I-81. There does remain some uncertainty though as
most model guidance has trended drier with the GFS and some of the
CAMs being the exceptions. An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be
ruled out as some guidance show weak surface-based instability (200-
400 J/kg) and shear (20 kts). Cloud cover will factor into how
unstable we get. Thunderstorm chances were based on the NAM and GFS,
so the northern portions of the Finger Lakes region would have the
best chance of seeing a thunderstorm. Southerly flow will help
temperatures reach the 70s and low 80s once again.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
240 PM update...

High pressure/ridging will push east of the region on Sunday.
A weak shortwave pushes into western NY Sunday morning and
pushes eastward through the day. A few showers and maybe a
thunderstorm will be possible with the best chances across our
western counties. This system will be fighting dry air as it
pushes east, with just slight to low chance PoPs across our
eastern counties. NAM forecast soundings are showing very
little instability and shear, so if any thunderstorms pop up,
they will not be severe. Shortwave exits the region Sunday
evening and showers will decrease in coverage after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
250 PM update...

A great start to the week is expected as an upper-level ridge
builds into the region, however an isolated shower or two can`t
be ruled out during the afternoon Monday. Conditions will be
mostly quiet through Tuesday and the cold front expected mid
week continues to trend slower in the model guidance. Shower
chances increase through the day on Wednesday, but ensemble
guidance shows showers possibly holding off until Thursday
morning now. Confidence for the end of the week is low and will
depend on the progression of a strong cold front that drops
south out of Canada Thursday into Friday. Shower chances
increase Wednesday night into Thursday as this frontal system
begins to move in.

Temperatures will be warm the first couple days of this
forecast period. The warmest day will be Tuesday with highs in
the 80s. The midweek period will be slightly cooler. Nightly
conditions will be mild with temps only falling into the 50s and
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the period at all terminals
with high pressure in place.

Outlook...

Saturday Night...Quiet pattern with mainly VFR conditions.

Sunday through Sunday Night...Chance of a shower/storm and
associated restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; Isolated rain showers.

Wednesday...Low chance of shower/storm and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/MPK
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...BTL/ES