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821
FXUS61 KBGM 300551
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
151 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Rain showers across the Catskills and Northeastern Pennsylvania
will slowly move east through the overnight hours. Through
Thursday, drier and cooler air will push in from the west with
quiet weather. Temperatures will warm up on Friday into the
weekend with continued quiet conditions.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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155 AM Update...
Widespread rain showers continue across the Wyoming Valley,
Poconos, and Catskills, but a well-defined back edge to the
precip is evident on radar. This should reach the Wyoming
Valley between 4 AM and 5 AM, and east of the CWA by around 8
AM. Made adjustments to PoPs in the near term.

930 PM Update...
CAMS continues to keep showers rotating through northeast PA
through 09Z, therefore no changes were made to Pops. Drier air
is pushing in over CNY along with parting skies. Temperatures
are beginning to drop off, made slight changes to incorporate
current observations with the forecast.

630 PM Update...
Rain showers have pushed south of CNY this evening with showers
lingering overnight over northeast PA. Radar imagery shows showers
have lightened up in terms of intensity, putting less pressure
on slow draining areas. Made minor changes to update
temperatures and dew points using current observations.
Otherwise the previous forecast remains on track at this time.

252 PM update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the areas of
showers and thunderstorms rotating southeast across the forecast
area later this afternoon and into the evening with locally
heavy rain the main threat...then clear and cool conditions
tonight with patchy fog...quiet/dry conditions on Thursday with
even cooler conditions expected Thu night with more fog
possible.

A slow-moving upper level short wave currently centered over
western PA, stacked on top of the associated surface low, will
pick up speed and move east across central/ern PA this evening
and tonight. This s/w will entrain a fair amount of deep
moisture as it moves east and combine with modest forcing to
trigger a blossoming area of rain showers mainly over north
central PA, but also spread farther north into s- central NY.
PWs advecting into the wave will hover around 1 inch, which is
quite below the average of 1.25" for this time of year. Surface
dew points in the lower to mid 50s are also on the low end of
the spectrum favorable for heavy rain. The amount of forcing and
available mid-level moisture is compensating for these slightly
drier parameters. There is also slow storm-motion and a pivot
point of the upper wave over n-central PA that will contribute
to a longer residence time of the rain showers and subsequent
heavier rain amounts.

Latest mesoanalysis over PA shows an axis of higher instability
with around 500 J/kg of ML CAPE between State College and
Williamsport. There is a broad area of steeper mid level lapse
rates across the region and also SI values around -1 to -2 deg C
which are also allowing for some deeper updrafts and enhanced
convection. We have already had a report of pea-size hail in
one of the storms...which could continue to be a threat along
with isolated cloud to ground lightning through the mid
evening.

The main area of concern through the next 4 hours will be over
northeast PA. Some very isolated heavy rain amounts around 1-1.5
inches are possible as well, which could lead to some localized
brief ponding of water in typical slow-draining areas.

Clouds should clear out tonight as a much drier air mass moves
in. This will combine with light winds, especially areas that
decouple from the boundary layer, and antecedent near-sfc
moisture to produce low clouds and patchy fog. Overnight lows
will bottom out in the lower to mid 40s.

The very dry air mass will continue to filter into the region
tomorrow and allow for mostly sunny skies through the day.
Cannot rule out some afternoon cumulus building up, but should
be more sun than clouds. High temperatures will rise only into
the 60s by the afternoon with breezy NW winds around 10 to 15
mph.

A stronger area of high pressure and large scale suppression
starts to build in from the west Thursday night, and skies will
remain mostly clear, which will set the stage for another
unseasonably cool night and even some patchy fog too. Lows will
fall back down into the lower to mid 40s Fri night.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM update...

Ridging will keep the area dry for Friday and Saturday. A
warming trend will start on Saturday with high temperatures
rising into the mid- to high-70s on Saturday and carry through
into the long-term forecast period. Overall, the short-term
period will be dry and warmer than this past week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
300 PM update...

Sunday and into the first half of the week looks a bit messy,
yet quieter. With multiple weak shortwaves passing through
Central NY and NE PA various times through the upcoming week,
there`s relative chances for rain showers and afternoon
thunderstorms through the mid-week. For now, we stuck with the
NBM as it encompasses chances for rain showers and afternoon
thunderstorms as some guidance suggests.Currently, the best
chance for the driest weather is Monday, with a small bubble of
short- lived, day-long weak ridging through the area. The
warming trend continues through mid-week, with temperatures at
its highest on Wednesday, with high temperatures potentially
reaching the low- to mid-80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Valley fog has developed in otherwise clear areas of Steuben
County, and is expected to start developing around ELM in the
next hour or two as high clouds thin-out. Elsewhere, could see
some brief fog at BGM as the high cloud cover thins out before
dawn.

Widespread rain showers continue at AVP, but the back edge of
precip looks to arrive between 08-09Z. Ceilings and vis remain
VFR, but a brief period of light fog around dawn is possible,
though confidence is low.

Otherwise, from mid morning, VFR conditions and light winds
will prevail through the TAF period across the region.

Outlook...

Late Thursday night through Saturday...Quiet pattern with
mainly VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Small chance of a shower or storm/brief
restriction Sunday and Monday afternoon.
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&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/ES/MPH
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...BJT/ES/MPH