-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
384
FXUS61 KBGM 010507
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
107 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and dry conditions will continue through
Saturday. Showers are possible on Sunday, mostly west of I81.
Warm and quiet weather will return for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1235 AM Update...

Not much to change with this update. Temperatures were touched
up to better match observations as it was a mixed bag of warmer
and cooler than expected locations.

930 PM Update...

Little change to the previous forecast from this afternoon.
Temperatures overnight were adjusted down closer to what the dew
points mixed to this afternoon but most regions stay above 40
still with a few locations in the Catskills getting into the
upper 30s.

235 PM Update...

High pressure remains over the region through the period with
mostly clear skies. Another cool night expected with efficient
radiational cooling. However, low temperatures will be 3 to 5
degrees warmer than last night, so no frost is expected. High
pressure will remain over the area

Saturday will mostly sunny once again with lighter winds and high
temperatures a bit warmer than today, with most areas reaching
well into the 70s. Clouds will increase Saturday night and
overnight lows will only get into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
240 PM update...

High pressure/ridging will push east of the region on Sunday.
A weak shortwave pushes into western NY Sunday morning and
pushes eastward through the day. A few showers and maybe a
thunderstorm will be possible with the best chances across our
western counties. This system will be fighting dry air as it
pushes east, with just slight to low chance PoPs across our
eastern counties. NAM forecast soundings are showing very
little instability and shear, so if any thunderstorms pop up,
they will not be severe. Shortwave exits the region Sunday
evening and showers will decrease in coverage after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
250 PM update...

A great start to the week is expected as an upper-level ridge
builds into the region, however an isolated shower or two can`t
be ruled out during the afternoon Monday. Conditions will be
mostly quiet through Tuesday and the cold front expected mid
week continues to trend slower in the model guidance. Shower
chances increase through the day on Wednesday, but ensemble
guidance shows showers possibly holding off until Thursday
morning now. Confidence for the end of the week is low and will
depend on the progression of a strong cold front that drops
south out of Canada Thursday into Friday. Shower chances
increase Wednesday night into Thursday as this frontal system
begins to move in.

Temperatures will be warm the first couple days of this
forecast period. The warmest day will be Tuesday with highs in
the 80s. The midweek period will be slightly cooler. Nightly
conditions will be mild with temps only falling into the 50s and
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions will persist through the period at all terminals
with high pressure in place.

Outlook...

Saturday Night...Quiet pattern with mainly VFR conditions.

Sunday through Sunday Night...Chance of a shower/storm and
associated restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; Isolated rain showers.

Wednesday...Low chance of shower/storm and associated
restrictions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL/MPK
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...BTL/ES