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279
FXUS61 KBTV 232000
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
400 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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After a period of unseasonably warm and unsettled weather,
drier conditions will prevail across the region heading into
the weekend. Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures return
towards the beginning of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 356 PM EDT Thursday...After a period of unseasonably warm and
fairly active weather, drier conditions will prevail across the
region in the wake of a surface cold front that pushed eastward this
morning. This afternoon into the evening will continue to feature
clear skies and sun. Heading into the overnight, the quiet weather
will continue with low temperatures in the 50s.

Friday is shaping up to be a beautiful day across the region,
featuring plenty of sunshine. High temperatures will warm into the
70s with a few spots in southern Vermont nearing 80, with dewpoints
in the 50s. A weak boundary will pass to the north, bringing a
slight chance for some showers near the international border,
although this feature looks to be moisture-starved. Friday night
will see some of the coolest overnight temperature we have seen in a
week or so, with lows dropping into the mid 40s to near 50, which is
normal for this time of year.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 356 PM EDT Thursday...Heading into the weekend, dry weather is
generally expected, especially during the daylight hours where upper
level ridging will prevail. During Saturday night though, a weak
shortwave trough will traverse the area providing a chance for
showers will perhaps some embedded thunder with soundings showing a
little bit of elevated instability. All in all, it`s looking like a
pretty nice weekend with high temps in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and
low humidity.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 356 PM EDT Thursday...Unfortunately, quiet weather won`t last
going into next week as a deep longwave trough looks to develop over
much of the eastern CONUS, with several potent shortwave troughs
digging through the forecast region. Memorial day begins dry, but as
low pressure over the Great Lakes deepens to around 990mb, shortwave
energy ahead of it will stream over the region on southwest flow
with showers and thunderstorms becoming increasingly likely in the
afternoon. Surface- based instability isn`t off the charts so
currently thinking thunderstorms will be more of the garden variety
and not strong, but this will be the best chance for thunder for the
week. Showery conditions follow for Tuesday with weak ridging
potentially drying things out for late Tuesday into early Wednesday,
but another more potent shortwave and stronger surface front arrives
Wednesday afternoon. While chances for thunder are more limited with
this system, it appears to be much colder behind the frontal passage
with the potential for some sub-40 degrees lows Wednesday night into
Thursday.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
across the region the next 24 hours. A cold front continued to
move eastward out of the region, with dry weather and clearing
skies following. Winds are generally southwesterly between 5-10
knots, with gusts up to 20 knots possible this afternoon. Winds
will abate overnight, generally less than 7 knots, before
picking back up tomorrow afternoon. A low level jet to our north
will bring some possible LLWS overnight, especially across KSLK.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Memorial Day: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 23:
KPBG: 65/1964

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Some ASOS and AWOS equipment have been having communications
issues overnight resulting in missing observations from
BTV/PBG/MVL/MPV and some others. Technicians are being
dispatched to check equipment and address this issue.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV