-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
654
FXUS61 KBTV 281024
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
624 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of fronts moving through will promote rounds of
scattered afternoon showers over the next couple of days. Cooler
conditions are expected for Wednesday with noticeably lower
humidity. A gradual warming trend with mainly drier weather can
be expected going into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 608 AM EDT Tuesday...Currently observing a brief break in
showers with the heaviest rain having departed to the east and
an upstream trough digging into southeastern Ontario. A line of
showers is moving through northern NY ahead of the shortwave
trough. These showers are on track to progress eastward through
the morning, though rainfall intensities within showers will be
much lighter than yesterday. Have kept mention of slight chance
for some thunder in the forecast today, mainly during peak
heating hours this afternoon. SPC Day 1 Outlook has us only
outlined in the General Thunder Area, which lines up well with
our thinking. Previous discussion follows...

A cold front will move through the area today associated with a
low pressure system to our north. Along with the passage of the
cold front, a dry slot has worked in which has allowed the
threat for heavy rainfall to come to an end. This morning began
with precipitable water values of 1.5+ inches as per RAP
soundings, but PW values drop to under 1.0 inch by daybreak
today. As an upper-level trough slides over the area today,
steepening lapse rates will promote development of some
scattered afternoon showers. A few embedded thunderstorms are
possible but with only shallow moisture and instability, not
expecting any severe weather. A secondary cold front will drop
through this evening into Wednesday, followed by a cooler and
drier air mass. During the day Wednesday, some widely scattered
showers will develop as the front sags southward, but only have
PoPs peaking in the 15-30 percent range. Highs Wednesday will be
in the 60s to around 70, with refreshing dewpoints in the 40s
to around 50.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 AM EDT Tuesday...The cold front will continue to push south
and east away from the region Wednesday night, bringing any
lingering showers to an end overnight. The upper trough will swing
into the region from north to south Thursday and Thursday night.
However, a much drier airmass will follow the frontal passage, with
inverted-v type profiles and PWATs 0.50 inch or less. So while
expect increasing clouds during the day Thursday, especially over
the higher terrain, daytime hours will mostly by dry. That being
said, have kept a slight chance of showers across far southern and
eastern VT as better moisture will be poised just outside of our CWA
border. Thursday night will likewise be dry, with clearing skies
once we lose daytime heating. With dry air in place, light winds,
and partly to mostly clear skies, expect decent radiational cooling
both Wednesday and Thursday nights; lows will mainly be in the 40s,
though some of the usual cold spots in the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom could well drop into the 30s. Thursday`s highs will be
seasonable though perhaps a couple of degrees cooler than normal;
expect most places to top out in the mid 60s to around 70F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 323 AM EDT Tuesday...Ridging will build over the region for
week`s end while the upper trough swings away out over the Atlantic.
The result will be fair and dry weather through at least Saturday.
Ridging breaks down by Sunday, with a few upper shortwaves progged
to slide along or just south of the international border. This could
allow for more showery conditions Sunday and Monday, though have
stayed close to the NBM PoPs for now given timing uncertainty; this
gives slight-low chances for showers for early next week.
Temperatures will exhibit a warming trend though this period;
Friday`s highs will be near normal (upper 60s to low 70s), but
expect much of the area to be approaching or exceeding 80F by
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Heavier rain from earlier this morning
has come to an end, with only some spotty lighter showers
remaining. Ceilings are generally VFR to start the TAF period,
but will lower to generally MVFR through the morning, though
expecting some intervals of low VFR mixed in at most TAF sites.
After 13Z, expect most TAF sites to lift to VFR with the
exception of KSLK and KMSS, which will stay MVFR through much of
the day today. Expecting ceilings to lower to widespread MVFR
after 00Z. Winds will be from the south/southwest at 5-10 knots this
morning, gradually becoming west this afternoon and northwest by
this evening. Some afternoon gusts 15-20 knots are expected,
especially over KMSS and KBTV.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Duell