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110
FXUS61 KCAR 251944
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
344 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build to the east of the region through
Sunday, as a weak coastal low passes to the south. A warm front
slowly approaches from the southwest Sunday night through Monday
night, as a storm system slowly moves into southwestern Quebec.
This storm then lifts slowly northeast into Central Quebec
Tuesday and Tuesday night, then slowly moves to the east into
the Maritimes through Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A weak upper level ridge will help usher in a weak shortwave
tonight. For this evening, RH models show the fair weather
cumulus dissipating as the system moves in. However, after
sunset, clouds will increase from west to east ahead of the
shortwave. After midnight, high-res QPF models show the rain
showers moving into the region. Due to the very dry air aloft in
the north, the rain showers will mainly stay to the south,
though cannot rule out an isolated showers in the north.

By Sunday, the shortwave will exit to the east with isolated
showers possible across the east throughout the day. Otherwise,
seasonable temps with light E winds. By afternoon, clouds will
begin to clear with possible fair weather cumulus. By the
evening, an increasing stratus deck is expected to move into the
south. This will depend on the strength of the onshore flow.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Deep layered northern stream ridging crosses the area Sunday
night, with associated subsidence keeping things dry, except
for possibly some isolated showers moving in late at night ahead
of the next system on the backside of the ridge. However,
enough low level moisture could end up getting caught under the
subsidence inversion to keep things more cloudy than not. Lows
Sunday night should be near to slightly above normal.

SW flow sets up aloft Monday on the backside of the departing
ridge. A surface to 850mb warm front lifting towards the region
could bring some scattered showers ahead of it. Highs on Monday
should be near normal.

A northern stream shortwave moves into Maine Monday night,
bringing widespread rain with it, bringing about 1/3-2/3 of an
inch of rain, with locally up to an inch possible over portions
of the Central Highlands. This should not be sufficient to
cause any flooding concerns. Lows Monday night should be around
5-10 degrees above normal.

The shortwave exits to the east Tuesday morning, bringing an end
to the main rain threat. However an approaching cold front
could trigger additional showers Tuesday afternoon. Given that
the atmosphere should have limited time to recover from the
morning rainfall, at this time, the risk of thunder is too low
to reflect in the forecast. Highs on Tuesday should be near to
slightly above normal.

Patchy fog is possible given moist low levels and light winds
late Sunday night/Monday morning and again late Monday
night/Tuesday morning. Fog could linger near the immediate coast
into the day on Tuesday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The models continue to show a mean trough building into the
eastern US Tuesday night through at least Thursday. Where they
differ is on the details of exactly where a closed low embedded
in this mean trough tracks. This will determine how much the
area is impacted by showers Tuesday night through Thursday. For
now leaned more towards the CMC/GFS as they were more similar to
handling the upper level features than the ECMWF (though it does
have run to run consistency with itself) as that combo appears
favored by more ensemble members on the whole. As a result
expect some mainly scattered showers Tuesday night, with the
showers becoming more isolated across mainly Downeast Maine on
Wednesday. The showers should become more scattered in nature
again across the entire region Wednesday night and Thursday.

The differences in the ECMWF vs GFS/CMC camp become much more
noticeable Thursday night-Saturday. The ECMWF basically stalls
the closed low near the region during this time frame (with
continued showers), while the GFS/CMC combo (once again favored
by more ensemble members than the ECMWF solution) allows for a
deep layered ridge to build in starting Thursday night and
continuing though Saturday. This would allow for things to dry
out. For now went with chance pops for Thursday night, then
slight chance pops Friday-Saturday (to reflect the chance that
the ECMWF forecast could still occur). The forecast in the
Thursday night-Saturday time frame has lower confidence than is
typical for a forecast in this time range given the spread in
solutions.

Temperatures Tuesday night-Wednesday night should be above
normal, then near normal Thursday-Friday night, then could end
up being above normal again on Saturday.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions for all terminals tonight with light
and variable winds. VFR conditions for all terminals Sunday
morning. By Sunday afternoon, lowering cigs for BGR/BHB will
bring conditions to MVFR for the rest of the day. Light and
variable winds.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday night-Monday: MVFR or lower possible late at night/early
in the morning in patchy fog, then VFR. SE winds G15-20KT
possible northern terminals and LLWS possible southern
terminals.

Monday night-Tuesday: IFR or lower possible, improving to MVFR
or VFR Tuesday afternoon. LLWS possible.

Tuesday night-Thursday: Becoming VFR Tuesday night, with a low
chance of MVFR in any showers thereafter. S winds G15-20KT
possible Wednesday. NW winds G115-20KT possible Thursday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions
tonight and Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Sub-SCA conditions are forecast on all waters
Sunday night. SCA conditions are then possible on the waters
Monday- Tuesday night, with the best chance Monday night-
Tuesday. There is also a very low end chance of gales on the
coastal ocean waters late Monday night into Tuesday night,
however the confidence in this is not high enough to mention it
in the HWO at this time. For now it appears that all waters
should experience sub-SCA conditions Wednesday-Thursday.
However, there is below normal confidence in the forecast in
this time frame, so SCA conditions are possible, but at this
time the confidence in there occurrence is not sufficient to
reflect in the forecast.

Fog could end up reducing visibilities over the waters to 1 NM
or less late Sunday night and Monday morning and then again from
late Monday night to well into the day on Tuesday.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...LaFlash
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...LaFlash/Maloit
Marine...LaFlash/Maloit