-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
123
FXUS61 KGYX 290150
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
950 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits to the southeast tonight with a few showers
possible. An upper level disturbance slowly crosses the region
Wednesday and Thursday bringing partly sunny skies. High
pressure crosses the region this weekend and builds to the south
early next week. This will provide dry and warmer conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
950 PM Update...Have made minor changes to T/Tds to align with
observed trends.

646 PM...Minor update to reflect observational trends. Trough
axis moving east across Upstate NY will continue the chance for
isolated showers across the north, mainly Coos County.
Otherwise, drier air moving into the area will lead to
diminishing shower chances after sunset.

Previously...

Surface cold front is currently pushing the CAPE rich airmass to
our east with only one area of storms being triggered on this
boundary. This storm will quickly move off to the east into
Penobscot County. Instability showers with an upper level trough
are also moving into NH but instability is mostly limited with
much drier low level air. Expect the upper level shortwave to
move across the area by midnight allowing for the chance for
inland showers through most of the night but will be isolated to
scattered in coverage. Most areas will experience a pleasant
and dry evening though.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Elongated 500mb trough axis will be over New England tomorrow
bringing with it cooler temperatures as a Canadian airmass
pushes into the region. This will bring a nice day tomorrow with
highs mostly in the low 70s with a relatively dry airmass in
place. It will be mostly sunny south of the mountains with a
light northerly breeze. Clouds will be on the increase across
southern areas late afternoon into the night as a weak vort max
pivots north ward in the mid-level flow across Southern New
England. A few showers could be possible by the overnight hours
across southern areas of the CWA. Overall QPF amounts will be
light.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High wave number pattern continues across the N Hemisphere at
500 MB, but flow becomes a little less amplified, and this
shifts the trough and closed lows poleward, and also weaken them
a bit. Although we start the period in a trough, this will
shift E and weaken allowing for more zonal flow at 500 MB, and
possible 500 MB ridging early next week. To sum up, we are
looking at mainly dry period, with a gradual warming trend.

Thu morning will see weak sfc low tracking ENE out of S New
England, through the downstream side of 500 MB trough. It looks
like a remnant of convection from the previous day, so
confidence is not high, but chance POPs in srn NH and along the
ME coast seem reasonable at this time, given that this feature
has been in this vicinity for several models runs. To the N,
Thursday looks partly to mostly sunny and seasonable cool with
highs in the mid 60s, while in the S look for highs in the upper
60s to low 70s. Thu night will be the last chilly night for
awhile, as sfc high slowly builds in. Itll be mainly clear with
lows around 40 in the mtns, coolest in the sheltered valleys,
to the mid to upper 40s in the S.

Friday through Monday look mainly dry, and generally sunny as
sfc high pressure gradually builds over the CWA, and mid level
flow turns SW allowing warmer air to move in. Highs on Friday of
the mid 60s to low 70s, will increase some each day reaching to
the mid 70s N to low 80s S by Monday. Overnight lows will
mostly be around 50 to start the weekend, but closer to the mid
to upper 50s by Monday. One possible complication maybe a
weakening convective system moving in from the W Sunday morning,
but still lots of uncertainty at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Any remaining IFR conditions due to the marine
layer on the mid-coast will push off to the east by the evening
as the surface cold pushes the marine layer out of the area. A
few showers are possible in the mountains and CT River Valley
but most areas will remain dry. The one area of thunderstorms
over the Kennebec River valley will depart the area quickly this
afternoon. Expect VFR conditions tonight through tomorrow as fog
isn`t expected to develop tonight. Quiet weather except for a
few pop-up showers by late afternoon across Southern NH but not
expected to impact aviation operations.

Long Term...Mainly VFR expected Thu through Mon. Could see some
brief MVFR in SHRA Thu morning at coastal terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Small craft advisory conditions will end this
afternoon as seas drop below 5 feet. Flow becomes off shore
tonight as winds switch to the NW behind the surface cold front
ending foggy conditions over the waters. Seas will subside
tomorrow and continue to slowly subside tomorrow into Wednesday
night.

Long Term...High pressure settles over New England from Thu
night into early next week, and winds/seas expected to remain
below SCA levels during that time.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Dumont/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Dumont
LONG TERM...Cempa