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FXUS61 KGYX 301709 AAC
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
109 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will continue across southern areas into the early
afternoon before tapering off as low pressure passes southeast
of the region. High pressure crosses the region this weekend
and builds to the south early next week. This will provide dry
and warmer conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1120 AM Update: Have lowered near term temperatures and raised
dewpoints in the areas with rain showers late this morning which
looks to be just a tad slower in departing than previous
forecast. This will delay daytime highs until mid/late afternoon
when clearing arrives for the northwest. No other significant
changes to the forecast at this time.

930 AM Update: Going forecast remains in good shape with
adjustments mainly to near term temperatures/dewpoints. Rain has
just about made its most northerly reach this hour with 12Z GYX
RAOB showing dry airmass immediately to the north that will win
out as the day goes on and offshore low pressure continues to
pull east. Clouds keeping temperatures cool with a gradual north
to south clearing trend expected to begin this afternoon.

615 AM Update...Have adjusted PoPs across southern NH and the
immediate coast of ME just a little bit here early this morning
based on latest trends in radar data. Otherwise, forecast
remains on track, with the bulk of the showers in the south
moving offshore this morning.

Previously...

Weak low pressure near NYC early this morning will track
northeastward along a stalled out SFC front as the morning and
early afternoon progresses. Weak lift and positive moisture
advection above the SFC front will allow for some of the showers
currently over CT to move northeastward and affect southeastern
NH and portions of coastal Maine this morning into the early
afternoon hours. A few downpours will be possible with a rumble
of thunder or two not out of the question. Away from these
coastal areas, we`ll just deal with some clouds with
temperatures rebounding to near 70F. There will be a short wave
trough moving across the region in the wake of the surface low
this afternoon and this may aid in the development of some
convective showers this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Skies clear out tonight with high pressure moving in. This will
allow for some radiational cooling, especially in the far
interior where some patchy frost will be possible.

Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected on Friday with a fresh
west wind and highs reaching the 70s at many locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overview: Mainly dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures are
expected through early next week before shower chances increase
towards mid-week as a frontal system approaches from the west.

Impacts: Little to no major weather related impacts are expected.

Forecast Details: Mainly clear skies on Friday night combined
with weak flow may allow for good radiational cooling
conditions. As such, blended in some MOS guidance to overnight
low temperature forecast. This places northern valleys into the
upper 30s with low to middle 40s elsewhere. Some valley fog
could develop overnight as well.

High pressure will continue to build over the area on Saturday and
Saturday night as a weak sfc warm front lifts northward. Saturday
will feature partly to mostly sunny skies and warm high temperatures
into the 70s to near 80 degrees with lows into the 40s to lower 50s.
Temperatures aloft warm some on Sunday with 850 mb temperatures
climbing to around +12C. This combined with afternoon mixing will
allow highs to reach the lower to middle 80s, although cooler along
the coast and mtns. Sunday night will be comfortable with lows into
the 50s. Dry conditions and mild temperatures then look to continue
on Monday and Tuesday before shower chances increase towards the
middle of next week as a frontal boundary approaches from the
west.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Short Term...

Summary: Generally quiet weather is expected through the period
with clearing skies this evening behind departing low
pressure...with high pressure then building towards the region
through Friday night.

Restrictions: VFR attm across the terminals and this will dominate
the period through Friday night.  There is some limited potential
for some fog at HIE tonight...but confidence in occurrence is not
high enough at this time for inclusion in the TAF.

Winds: Northerly winds 5-10kts today will diminish to 5kts or less
tonight before rebounding to around 10G15kts from the northwest
for the day on Friday. Winds will go calm/light-variable again
Friday night.

LLWS: LLWS is note expected through Friday night.

Lightning: Lightning is not expected through Friday night.

Long Term...VFR conditions will prevail Saturday through
Monday. The exception could be on Friday night into early
Saturday at KHIE and KLEB due to valley nighttime fog. Winds
will be primarily out of the west- northwest at 10-15 kts,
although a sea breeze could develop most days with winds
becoming southerly at KPSM, KPWM, and KRKD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Low pressure passes just S of the waters today,
but winds/seas stay below SCA criteria.

Long Term....Winds and seas to remain below SCA thresholds as
high pressure builds south of the waters. Some marine fog will
be possible at times, especially at night.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Arnott