-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
195
FXUS61 KILN 250205
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1005 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through the region Saturday,
bringing a low end chance for showers and storms. On Sunday, a
stronger system has the potential to push multiple rounds of
storms through the Ohio Valley, with the potential for some
storms to be severe. After this system moves through,
temperatures cool behind the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Evening update...
Showers and storms eventually made their way into northwest
portions of the forecast area this evening, with isolated
activity elsewhere. The outflow boundary associated with this
activity is moving southeast, but as it does so, it is losing
reinforced cold air due to the lack of new thunderstorms. This
boundary will continue to move southeastward toward I-71 before
washing out.

Further to the west, another thunderstorm cluster is entering
western Indiana. Thunderstorm activity with this feature is also
beginning to decrease. There remains a pocket of instability
across south-central Ohio, so can`t rule out the possibility of
this activity eventually reaching the tri-state area within the
next 4-6 hours. Either way, the lack of shear will limit the
potential for thunderstorms to reach any sort of concerning
intensity overnight.

Previous discussion...
A low pressure system currently located over the Dakotas
continues to work its way east as it occludes. The associated
cold front with the system stretches south, away from the parent
low, forcing showers and storms out ahead of it into eastern
Indiana/ western Ohio. This decaying MCS looks to move into our
region around the start of the near term period. Both shear and
MLCAPE will be marginal nearer to our FA. In addition to this,
another area of shower and storms moving out of western
Tennessee looks to move northeast toward our region (also
decaying) during the same time frame. Some residual activity
from this may also make it into the Tri-State region during the
late evening hours. Severe threat with both of these
disturbances looks to be minimal, but cannot rule out an
isolated storm with strong winds.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Continued tricky forecast as the occluding low slowly drags the
cold front the region on Saturday. Some AM showers are possible
through the area, but with afternoon destabilization, the better
chances for showers/storms will be east of I-70 as the front
continues its trek eastward. Right now, guidance suggests a more
disorganized threat (rather than an organized line). The
primary threat with these storms will be strong to damaging
winds and large hail. High temperatures on Saturday reach the
low 80s.

By evening hours, precipitation chances decrease and we stay
quiet overnight. Overnight low temperatures drop to the upper
50s/ low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sunday will have the focus of severe weather coming in from the
west. In the late morning and early afternoon, a decaying line of
thunderstorms will move through the CWA from west to east. Any
discrete storms present through this time will have a potential for
damaging winds. The worst weather potential lies behind the line
late in the day and early evening. This is as the lower atmosphere
destabilizes with daytime heating, a continued influx of strong
winds just above the surface, and both increasing shear and
moisture. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s, warmest in the east.

The region will remain warm-sectored behind any evening storms,
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity through morning. Lows
will be near 67 due to the continued warm air advection occurring.

On Monday, a cold front will pass east through the Ohio Valley, but
models are strongly different with regards to timing. While the
forecast just denotes a decreasing chance through the day, there
will be a marked back edge that will have a better timing to it with
future forecasts. Highs will be notably cooler, lower 70s northwest,
near or just above 80 in the south and southeast. Overnight will be
the first night in a while dropping below 60, with upper 50s
forecast.

Upper level energy rotating around a low over WI will bring the
threat for some showers Tuesday, mainly over central Ohio. Highs will
again be muted ranging from the low 70s north to mid and upper 70s
south.

The stronger upper shortwave and axis of the low will pass late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday with lingering shower
possibilities through this time. Lows Wednesday morning will be in
the lower 50s, with highs within a few degrees of 70.

As the upper low crosses, surface high pressure to the west builds
and a deep northerly flow will  be found, with a noted decrease in
overnight low temperatures and a slight daytime warming. Lows will
drop to near 50 and highs will remain in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few isolated showers and thunderstorms around area TAF sites
at the start of the period. A more organized complex of
thunderstorms is moving into eastern Indiana/west-central Ohio.
Will closely watch the potential for an outflow boundary driven
wind shift at DAY. Due to timing uncertainty, this was not
included in the TAF.

Maintained the mention of BR at LUK.

Saturday morning arrives with lowering CIGs, but kept
everything low end VFR for now with winds out of the southwest.
These clouds scatter during the afternoon and evening as the
weakening front moves through. While winds will be below 10
knots, a wind shift to northwesterly is expected near the end of
the TAF.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...McGinnis