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714
FXUS61 KCAR 191309
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
909 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance will exit across the Maritimes today. High
pressure will ridge across the region today through early
week, then build south of the area through the middle of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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910AM Update...Radar scans show the rain showers over Washington
county slowly dissipating. These showers should clear out by
end of the morning. Low cloud deck remains over most of the
area. No major changes to the forecast for this update.

Previous Discussion...
An upper level disturbance will exit across the Maritimes this
morning. At the surface, high pressure centered near Labrador
will ridge back across the region. Will have scattered/numerous
showers this morning along the Downeast coast and across
Washington county. Otherwise, expect cloudy/mostly cloudy skies
across the forecast area today. Surface ridging persists
tonight, along with a building upper ridge. Expect mostly/partly
cloudy skies early tonight, with partly cloudy skies overnight.
High temperatures today will range from the upper 60s to lower
70s north, to the lower to mid 60s interior Downeast with upper
50s to around 60 along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures
tonight will range from the upper 40s to around 50 north, with
mid to upper 40s Downeast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level ridge remains across the area on Monday with surface
high extending from the Canadian Maritimes through the mid
atlantic. A weak cold front approaches the region from Quebec
but remains west of the state. A surge of warmer air around the
high allows temperatures across northern areas to climb into the
mid to upper 70s but more of an onshore flow keeps highs for
the Bangor region and Downeast cooler. Dry weather is expected
on Monday but expect cumulus development to give way to a mix of
sun and clouds by afternoon. With weak short wave energy
crossing the crown of Maine later afternoon, couldn`t totally
rule of an isolated late afternoon shower across the far north
and St. John Valley. Monday night a boundary remains situated
just to our north. Thinking is it remains mainly dry Monday
night with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected. The flow
aloft on Tuesday becomes more zonal as the upper level ridge
flattens out. Surface high remains to our south to the east of
the mid atlantic. The 00z operational models are painting
different pictures for the Tuesday forecast, owing to how they
handle remnant convective issues that occur in the Great Lakes
region later Monday night. The GFS and NAM are the more
pessimistic solutions and bring this into our region during
Tuesday afternoon, versus the EC and Canadian which are drier
solutions. Followed NBM (National Model Blend) which yields
chance showers with afternoon highs nearing 80 degrees most
areas away from the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday night should be a fair and mild night with lows only in
the mid to upper 50s, as the upper ridging once again builds
in. Wednesday looks like the warmest day of the week with
increasing humidity as surface high drifts east of the mid
atlantic with west to southwest flow in place. The models
indicate 925MB temperatures climb to between 21C to 24C, which
should yield afternoon highs in the mid 80s for some inland
locations. Along with the warm temperatures and increasing low
level moisture will come increasing instability and the chance
of an afternoon shower and thunderstorm. A warm and bit more muggy
night can be expected Wednesday night, with overnight lows not
expected to fall much lower than the 60 degree mark in many
areas. Thursday is shaping up as a potentially active day as a
strong cold front approaches from the west. With the warm and
humid air mass in place ahead of the front, there is the
possibility of our first widespread thunderstorms of the spring
season. Of course, this is several days out and subject to
change, based on the timing of the front etc, but something to
keep an eye on. Looks like much cooler weather can be expected
behind the front for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions, ranging from MVFR to LIFR, this
morning. VFR/MVFR this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers
along the Downeast coast and Washington county this morning.
Patchy fog along the Downeast coast this morning. VFR/MVFR early
tonight, lowering to MVFR/IFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots
today through tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Mon through Tue...VFR. Chance showers Tue. S to SW wind.

Tue night...VFR Aroostook terminals. MVFR or lower possible
KBGR/KBHB in late night patchy fog.

Wed...VFR, except MVFR or lower KBGR/KBHB in possible early
morning patchy fog. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms north.

Thu...VFR/MVFR. Chance thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Generally expect winds/seas below small craft advisory
levels today through tonight. However, a few wind gusts could
reach small craft advisory levels early this morning and seas
could approach small craft advisory levels on the western waters
today. Numerous to scattered showers this morning. Patchy fog
this morning.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas expected to remain below SCA levels. Fog
could become an issues on the waters by midweek.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash/Norcross
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...LaFlash/Norcross/TWD
Marine...LaFlash/Norcross/TWD