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FXUS61 KCAR 310219 CCA
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1004 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the region through Saturday, then
slowly exits offshore through Sunday. A weak cold front passes
Sunday night, followed by weak high pressure building in through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
950 pm update...Clouds from the wave moving along the coast and
the upper low spinning north of Aroostook County will be
diminishing in the coming hours. The decreasing clouds and light
winds will allow temps to dip towards readings in the 30s and
40s. With regards to the lack of a Frost Advisory in NW
Aroostook and N Somerset counties, that is due to the
frost/freeze program not being effect yet for this season.

Previous discussion...
Surface low continues to spin off of Nantucket with showers
confined to the waters this afternoon. Have lowered pops along
the coast for the rest of today. High clouds spreading north
will slide south and east this evening as low moves south of the
waters. Have gone under guidance across the area as skies clear
and winds decouple tonight. Another round of river valley fog is
possible toward morning. Only question will be what happens to
the high cirrus moving in from Quebec. Will this be thick enough
to keep temps from dropping and prevent frost formation. Have
gone optimistic with min temps and issued a Frost Advisory in
areas that are active for Central Piscataquis and northeast
Aroostook Counties. Given the warm lows over the past 2.5 weeks
and vegetation further ahead than usual feel it/s better to be
safe than sorry. That being said expect frost over northern
Piscataquis, Somerset and northwest Aroostook Counties late
tonight into Friday morning as well.

Hires models and CAMS are hinting at shower develop tomorrow
afternoon in area of cold core aloft. Enough low-level moisture
looks to be rotating around on the back side of the upr low and
with sfc heating allowing temps to rise into the lwr 70s, there
may be enough to pop a shower or two. Shower development looks
to be over the Central Highlands down into Bangor and Penobscot
Bay mid-late afternoon. Minimal rainfall is expected with any
showers that are able to develop.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep layered ridging slowly builds in over the area Friday night
through Sunday as a cutoff low slowly sinks SSE across the
eastern Maritimes then SE off Nova Scotia through this time
frame.

The high resolution models are in good agreement that the last
of the shortwaves rotating around the closed low to impact us
should bring some showers to the Penobscot Bay region early
Friday evening, then we should see decreasing cloud cover due to
increasing subsidence aloft. Friday night should not be as cold
as the past couple of night, as it should be a bit more well
mixed in the low levels. Lows should be a few degrees below
normal Friday night.

Saturday should be a mainly sunny day with increasing subsidence
under the building up ridge. Highs on Saturday should be around
5 degrees above normal.

As moisture builds in over the top of the upper ridge in
response to a northern stream shortwave passing well to the
north, Saturday night and Sunday will feature a bit more in the
way of clouds than Friday night and Saturday. Also, this time
frame will feature increasing low level warm air advection. As a
result, expect lows Saturday night to run around normal. Highs
on Sunday should be 5-10 degrees above normal, with a few
readings reaching the 80 degree mark in southern portions of the
Central Highlands and the Bangor Region cannot be ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Looking back over the past 7-10 days or so, the ECMWF has
struggled a bit more with the pattern over northern North
America than the GFS and CMC. With the models remain split
between a ECMWF and GFS/CMC camp, have leaned more towards the
GFS/CMC Sunday night-Thursday, as the overall pattern - an omega
block slowly translating eastward over time - has not really
changed. With that said, given the high level of uncertainty
inherent in model handling of cutoff lows, cannot completely
rule out the ECMWF solution.

So for now have gone dry Sunday-Monday night (more than likely
it should be dry enough to preclude precipitation with the
northern stream trough going over the top of the ridge
Monday), then slight chance pops Tuesday-Thursday to reflect
possibility of the closed low retrograding back over the area.

Temperatures should be above normal Sunday night-Thursday

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours. Cannot rule out VCSH at BHB this
afternoon but other than a BKN VFR deck moving in very little
impact expected at terminals. Winds gusting across northern
Aroostook terminals diminish this evening. NW winds pick up
again at all sites Friday morning with gusts between 15-20kts.

SHORT TERM:
Friday night-Tuesday...VFR, with a low chance for MVFR in any
fog late Monday night/early Tuesday morning at southern
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft levels
tonight into tomorrow. Seas range from 2-3 feet through Friday.

SHORT TERM: A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters Sunday
night-Tuesday should limit winds to 10 kt or less and seas to 2
ft or less. Patchy fog is possible over the waters from late
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM EDT Friday for MEZ002-010.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/MCW
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...Buster/MCW/Maloit
Marine...Buster/MCW/Maloit