-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
558
FXUS61 KPHI 012033
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
433 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through tomorrow morning. A weak
system approaches for Sunday into Monday. High pressure moves in on
Monday Night remaining in control through early Wednesday. An upper
level low then will move into the Great Lakes, keeping things
unsettled into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Another pleasant day is occurring across the region thanks to an
upper-level ridge and surface high pressure that are pushing through
the region. Skies are mostly clear, save for a bit of cirrus, with
temperatures rising into the 80s across most of the region. A sea
breeze has developed and is beginning to slowly work its way inland
which will result in a wind shift from SW to SE. Seeing how far
inland the seabreeze makes it will be the main thing to watch for
this evening with the otherwise fair weather.

For tonight, light winds and low dew points, along with initially
clear skies will lead to ideal radiational cooling conditions.
Temperatures will fall into the 50s with some low 60s in the heart
of the urban corridor. Cirrus clouds will increase as the next low
pressure system approaches.

Clouds will continue to increase daytime Sunday. Southwest winds
will be a bit stronger on Sunday, generally around 10 mph, with a
few gusts up to 15 mph. High temperatures are expected to again be
in the low-mid 80s across most of the region (cooler in the Poconos
and at the shore). The vast majority of the day is expected to be
dry regionwide, thanks to in part drier air lingering below 500 mb.
By the evening, a few light showers may begin to move in, so do have
some slight chance PoPs (15-20%) for the most western portion of the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weakening shortwave approaches on Sunday Night, rotating around
the backside of an upper level low over the north Atlantic. This
will bring some scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
but nothing to write home about. Rain chances are around 30-50%
region-wide for the overnight hours. Temperatures will fall into the
low to mid 60s.

12z guidance has generally slowed with this shortwave as the upper
level low gradually pulls away. This may result in some scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. The
best chance to see rain/thunderstorms is within lower Delmarva (30-
40%), with 15-20% through the rest of the area. Otherwise, the day
will be mainly dry for most, with temperatures climbing into the low
to mid 80s.

We dry out Monday Night through Tuesday as high pressure nudges in
from the north. With the high positioned just offshore, an onshore
flow will develop which will result in temperatures in the low to
mid 70s near the coast, with upper 70s/low 80s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Long term period will be marked by unsettled weather due to a closed
low moving into the Great Lakes region and meandering through the
weekend. This will result in numerous shortwaves rounding the base
of the closed low and moving towards our region. The strongest
shortwave looks to approach on Thursday, with an associated cold
front moving through sometime late in the week. Out ahead of the
front, widespread showers and thunderstorms look to develop. Too
early to tell if any weather will be severe or if there are any
flooding concerns, but the Thursday/Thursday night time frame has
the highest rain chances (around 60-70%). Outside of that window,
generally expecting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
mainly in the afternoon/early evening timeframe of each day. Even
with the front coming through late in the week, unsettled weather
likely continues through the weekend as the upper level low hangs
around near the Great Lakes/Southern Ontario region.

Temperatures will hover near or perhaps a touch below normal for
early June for the long term period with highs near 80 and overnight
lows near 60.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR with a bit of upper-level cirrus. Mainly
southwest winds around 5-10 knots. Sea breeze expected to turn winds
south/southeasterly at KACY/KMIV with a possible push inland to
other sites after 20Z/21Z. High confidence in VFR conditions.

Tonight...VFR with high-level cirrus clouds increasing. Light and
variables winds around 5 knots or less. High confidence.

Sunday...VFR with increasing mid-level clouds. Southwest winds
around 10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...Restrictions possible (40-60%) with scattered showers
and low clouds moving through. Patchy fog may develop as well.

Monday...Lingering restrictions in the morning likely (50-60%)
though lifting to VFR in the afternoon.

Monday Night through Tuesday Night...VFR. No significant weather.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night...Primarily VFR though
showers/isolated thunderstorms arriving late in the day could bring
some restrictions.

Thursday...Restrictions likely (70-80%) with widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms moving through.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No marine headlines expected with fair weather. Winds southwest
around 10-15 knots with a few gusts up to 20 knots possible,
particularly early tonight. Seas 2-3 feet.

Outlook...

Sunday Night through Thursday...No marine headlines expected on the
waters. Fair weather outside of Thursday, where showers and
thunderstorms are expected.


Rip Currents...

A LOW risk for the development of rip currents is in place for
Sunday as winds will be southwesterly around 10 MPH with 1 to 2
foot breaking waves and a 5 to 7 second period. While winds
turn more onshore for Monday, wind speeds will be 10 MPH or
less, with continuing 1 to 2 foot waves and short to medium
period. The result will be another day of a LOW risk for the
development of rip currents.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and
piers. Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the
water.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich
NEAR TERM...AKL
SHORT TERM...Hoeflich
LONG TERM...Hoeflich
AVIATION...AKL/Hoeflich
MARINE...AKL/Hoeflich