-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
093
FXUS62 KRAH 220553
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
153 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the western Atlantic will extend across the
Southeast ahead of a cold front that will approach from the west and
become quasi-stationary from the Middle Atlantic to the lower MS
Valley Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 830 PM Tuesday...

The proverbial "forecast problem of the day" for the evening update
will once again be related to any fog development overnight/early
tomorrow morning. There has been a discernible eastward shift in the
ensemble probabilities for reduced visbys in fog, with the best
chance generally along and east of the I-95 corridor.

Otherwise, tranquil weather and moderating temps will be the theme
over next 36 hours. May see some thin cirrus across the western
counties as a weak upper disturbance moves through the area. Under
mostly clear skies, lows ranging from the mid/upper 50s in the
cooler locations, to lower/mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...

Surface high pressure will continue to influence much of the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeastern US Wednesday. Some patchy fog/low stratus
in the early morning hours over the Coastal plain region will clear
out by early morning and result in a mostly sunny day. Dry
conditions will continue through the day with light south-southwest
winds. Temperatures will be 6 to 7 degrees above normal with
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s, and lows in the low to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

The general theme for the Thursday through Tuesday timeframe is for
increasingly unsettled weather as a cold front moves in. A series of
upper level disturbances in west-southwesterly flow aloft will
augment the chances for showers and storms at times. The most
predictable times for precip appear to be on Thursday with the
initial cold front and then on Friday with an upper disturbance with
which the GFS and ECMWF are fairly consistent. Beyond that the upper
level features appear to be relatively subtle until perhaps early
next week when models project a surface low moving through the Ohio
Valley and another cold moving into the region.

Rainfall through next Tuesday is forecast to total half an inch to
an inch on average, but there will certainly be some areas that
receive more in heavier showers, and thunderstorms. Slightly greater
rainfall is forecast across northern North Carolina into Virginia.

Temperatures should be slightly above normal Thursday and Friday in
the mind and upper 80s, likely trending back to normal over the
weekend with increased coverage of clouds and convection, although
confidence is somewhat low given 10 degree temperature spreads in
the some ensemble guidance owing to the uncertainty in the timing of
precip.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 150 AM Wednesday...

High pressure centered along the coast of the Carolinas will
continue to favor dry and primarily VFR conditions, and light sly to
sswly surface winds, in cntl NC. The exceptions to VFR will be a
risk of typical visibility fluctuations in radiation fog at RWI
through 11-12Z (ie. variable between LIFR and VFR) and also an area
of low stratus and fog now over sern NC, which may spread to near
and just southeast of FAY-CTZ between 10-12Z.

Outlook: A chance of afternoon-evening showers/storms will exist
Thu afternoon through the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS