389
FXAK69 PAFG 221205
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
405 AM AKDT Wed May 22 2024


.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures remain above seasonal norms for the Interior into
Wednesday, then things cool down with rain showers likely on
Thursday. Break- up continues over the Yukon Delta and Lower
Yukon, and breaking is beginning over parts of the N Slope, as
well. Snowmelt flooding will be a concern over the Yukon Flats
along the Porcupine River in the coming days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 525 dam low over the Bering Sea with shortwaves
rotating northward bringing showers to the west coast. Chinook
flow will weaken over the ALaska Range this morning. As the upper
level low moves inland tonight a shortwave will rotate across
the Interior on Thursday bringing showers to the Eastern Interior.
Another low will move into Bristol Bay late Thu into Friday.


Central and Eastern Interior...
Chinook flow will weaken this morning. Cancelled the wind advisory
for Delta Junction and kept wind advisories out for the passes
through Noon. Numerous rain showers will develop Wed evening and
into Thursday, but the models are trending for the highest pops
to be over the Eastern Interior and higher elvations north of
Fairbanks. Showers persist into Friday along with a downtrend
in high temps through Friday. Highs in the 60s for Wednesday then
in the 50s for Thursday, then slightly warmer on Friday. The
threat of thunderstorms is low for the Interior through Friday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The Western Interior and West Coast is will remain wet and cool
through the end of the week. Showers will persist over the west
coast and inland areas around a low pressure center in the Bering.
Another front brings more rain to the SW Coast and Lower Yukon
Thu night and Fri. Three day total rainfall amounts will be rather
light, with around 0.5 inches on the lower Yukon to 0.25 inches
or less further north. Strong northerly winds will develop in the
Bering Strait late Fri night into Saturday with near gale force
winds over the water.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Stratus, fog, periodic snow showers and east winds will dominate
for the next several days. The crest of the Brooks Range will see
increased chances for rain (snow above 2500 feet by Wed night)
showers midweek and beyond as an arctic front stalls over the
mountains. Easterly winds will become stronger from Point Lay west
to Point Hope Friday into Saturday.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Chinook flow will weaken this morning and a cooling trend expected
for the Interior in the short term. Scattered to numerous showers
expected on Thursday over the Eastern Intrior with cooler temps
into Fri. Right now, no thunderstorm chances are anticipated,
although there is a less than 5 percent chance on Thu along the
ALCAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Lower Yukon break-up continues as running ice and high water
remain at St Mary`s, Pitkas Point and Mountain Village and a ice
jam flood watch remains for those areas through Thursday. The
break up front is now downstream of Mountain Village and will
likely get to the Yukon Delta at Alakanuk, Emmonak, Nunam Iqua and
Kotlik sometime between late tonight and Fri, bringing the risk
of ice jam flooding to those areas tonight through Fri. Flood
watches are out for all these areas.

The water levels along the Porcupine River at the Border rose to
record levels over the weekend due to heavy snowmelt. This high
water is expected to reach Ft Yukon on Wed, where it will
gradually fills sloughs and swales east of Ft Yukon and eventually
bring high water into Ft Yukon late this week with high water
continuing into next week. A flood watch is valid front this Wed
through next week Wed.

There are no new reports about the Buckland River, but there was a
reported ice jam downstream of Buckland a couple days ago with
rising water levels. We will continue to monitor.

Rivers on the North Slope are beginning to flow with water
flowing over ice with some open water areas. Those area will
continue to see increasing melt this week.

&&

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ847-849.
     Flood Watch for AKZ825.
     Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$