Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
408 FXAK67 PAJK 262313 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 313 PM AKDT Sun May 26 2024 .SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/...Precipitation is there, but not as heavy as originally expected. Did not really curtail the PoP extent but did decrease the QPF values a fair bit and went with showers or scattered showers vice periods of rain. No significant changes to winds or temperatures and a very compact low off the outer coast will continue to track northwest, having no impact on winds or waves on the inside. .LONG TERM.../ Tuesday through Friday/ By Tuesday the unsettled weather over the panhandle looks to be largely coming to an end as the vertically stacked low in the Gulf continues to dissipate. Guidance is continuing to lean more and more towards a break in precipitation on Wednesday and Thursday with a surface ridge building in over the panhandle. While this will lead to a shift to onshore flow, being on the northern downstream side of the ridge should mean any precipitation that does develop due to orographic effects along the coast should be minimal and any showers should be light and short lived. After this short period of relatively dry weather, model guidance continues to converge on a well established front pushing across the Alaskan Gulf and impacting SE AK Friday. Some deterministic models have tried to throw a short wave disturbance towards the panhandle ahead of the front, but this would likely just mean a period of potential higher shower activity for the outer coast later in the day Thursday. With the advancing front, winds in the Gulf will likely switch to be more out of the SE by Thursday afternoon While exact timing remains uncertain this far out, ensemble means are trending toward winds of at least 25 kt likely along the outer coast ahead of the front with gales not out of the question. Depending upon the orientation of the boundary, this would then likely lead to close to small craft conditions for parts of the inner channels as the front begins to push inland. This however will also depend on the overall strength and positioning of the parent low feature in the northwestern Gulf. Overall this will likely lead to a wet and breezy end to the week for the panhandle. && .AVIATION.../Through Sunday night/...Flight conditions 1000/3 or better with diminishing low level turbulence as a compact low off the outer coast continues to track northwest away from the coast. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-643-644-663-664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fritsch LONG TERM....STJ AVIATION...Fritsch Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau