618
FXUS61 KAKQ 220026
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
826 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts offshore this evening. A summerlike
pattern develops by the middle of the week as high pressure
settles off the Southeast coast. A cold front approaches from
the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms to end the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key message:

- Quiet overnight with patchy fog possible once again, mainly E
  of I-95.

The latest analysis indicates ~1017 mb sfc high pressure
centered along the Delmarva and Carolina coast, with an upper
level ridge extending ENE from the Gulf of Mexico to the NC
coastal plain. There is a weak trough aloft not too far to the
W, across the central and southern Appalachians, but this will
have little affect of the local area overnight. Temperatures are
several degrees warmer than 24 hrs ago (along with a another day
of drying from earlier today). Still, the pattern w/ sfc high
pressure slowly drifting off the coast and a light SE flow will
be conducive to another night with at least patchy fog,
primarily further east and SE tonight given that the high has
shifted offshore. Will go with patchy fog especially SE and
south central VA, NE NC and the Eastern Shore. Lows generally
dropping back into the upper 50s/lower 60s, with some mid 50s
over the interior sections of SE VA and across the eastern
shore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Summerlike and more humid for Wed and Thursday with
  temperatures close to 90 each day.

- Chances for storms later Thursday into Thursday evening. A
  few of these storms may be strong to severe.

High pressure settles off the coast by Wednesday, leading to
south to southwest low level flow. This will allow the surge of
warmer temperatures and higher humidity levels across the area.
Despite temps approaching 90, it looks tough for any storms to
develop given the ridge axis over the region. The HRRR and
HighResFV3 suggest storms may develop over northern VA late Wed
afternoon then perhaps brush by the far northern part of the
forecast area Wed evening as the showers/storms diminish. Have
opted to include a slight chance for this time period but most
likely it will stay dry.

Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop as a cold front
approaches from the NW on Thursday. These will most likely form
later in the day (say after 3 or 4 pm) and then continue to the
coast by later Thu evening. With the ridge breaking down somewhat,
stronger mid level flow of 40 kt will move across the area during
the afternoon. This stronger mid level flow combined will help to
give 30 kt of deep shear. The kinematics combined with favorable
thermodynamics (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG) may allow for some localized
severe storms especially if we can see the multicellular storms
develop into a more linear feature. The inverted-V type
sounding and some dry air aloft would suggest wind being the
main threat from any severe weather. Currently have a marginal
risk for severe weather for the majority of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:
- Remaining somewhat unsettled through the weekend with chances
  for mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

- Forecast trending warmer for the weekend into early next
  week.

Not too many changes to the underlying thinking for Friday through
the Memorial Day weekend. The slow moving cold front which will be
gradually moving through the area on Thursday will stall out nearby
for the weekend. Meanwhile, the ridge breaks down just enough to
allow stronger mid level westerly flow to remain in place across the
area through the weekend. Within this westerly flow, the models
suggest a series of short waves moving through. Timing of these is
impossible to accurately predict at this time, however. As
such, there will be chances for showers and storms for much of
the weekend. We should be able to better define timing of the
best chances as we get closer to the weekend. However, for now,
the best chances for showers/storms look to be on Friday and
again on Sunday.

The NBM has warmed up temperatures for the weekend, with most places
now in the mid to upper 80s. With lack of any significant
troughiness across the region, this makes sense and have increased
the official forecast to match.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions this evening with a mainly clear sky and light
winds. Expect patchy fog and perhaps some low CIGs develop
after midnight, primarily from near the coast to portions of
interior SE VA and NE NC (and the VA-MD eastern shore). In
general, the flight restrictions will be less than what occurred
last night/early this morning. Will keep RIC VFR all night since
the sfc high shifted offshore is not as favorable a pattern for
fog in central VA. However, will have some mention of IFR-MVFR
restrictions at the other terminals, with the greatest coverage
expected from 05-11Z. Fog/low clouds should quickly burn off a
little faster Wed morning with all sites VFR by 13-14z. On Wed,
winds will be SW 5-10kt, except with some backing of the winds
to the SE near the coast in the aftn. Mostly sunny with SCT aftn
cumulus.

Outlook...A cold front approaches the area Thu bringing with it a
chance for showers/storms along with possible flight restrictions.
The front looks to stall in the vicinity of the region Fri-Sun,
bringing daily chances for mainly afternoon/evening showers and
storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

-Moderate rip current risk continues for southern beaches today
before returning to low for all local coastal waters Wednesday.

-Marine fog will be possible again tonight. Rain and storm chances
return beginning Thursday.

High pressure remains across the local area this afternoon creating
calm marine conditions. Winds are generally variable at less than
8kt, but should become more southeasterly late this evening before
turning southwesterly during the early morning hours. Speeds are
forecast to remain between 10-15kt. Seas are 2-3ft with waves in the
Bay around 1ft. Another round of low clouds/marine fog may be
possible again tonight, particularly along the Atlantic coast.
Visibilities could be reduced to 1-2SM at times.

The area of high pressure begins to slide offshore on Wednesday
ahead of an incoming frontal system. High-resolution guidance tries
to indicate a brief uptick in southerly wind speeds to sustained 15-
19kt Wednesday afternoon. Rain and storm chances will increase on
Thursday with the front`s approach, and are forecast to persist each
day into early next week as the front stalls out across the region.
Expect the best rain chances to be likely in the afternoon/evening
hours. Currently not anticipating any wind issues with the frontal
passage itself, though strong erratic gusts will be possible with
any stronger thunderstorm during this period. Seas are forecast to
remain around 2-3ft.

A moderate risk of rip currents continues for the rest of the day
for the southern beaches. Expecting the rip forecast to return to
low for all beaches on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday...

The Nottoway River at Sebrell remains in minor flood, and has
been dropping slower than the previous forecast. Water levels
are expected to fall below flood stage by early Wed morning, so
the Flood Warning has been extended.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected to
occur tonight, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal
portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal
Potomac. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for these
locations for tonight`s high tide cycle. A similar pattern will
likely continue again later Wednesday as the higher astronomical
high tides will remain elevated.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB/MRD
NEAR TERM...LKB/MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JKP
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ