399
FXUS61 KAKQ 020544
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
144 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues through tonight as high pressure
gradually pushes offshore. A weak low pressure system will bring the
chance for a few showers and storms late Sunday into Monday. Warm
and unsettled weather returns from mid to late week with scattered
showers and storms possible through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 145 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Cloudy weather continues overnight.

Current wx analysis depicts sfc high pressure centered over the
Outer Banks with an upper level ridge axis in place across the
east coast. Temps as of 140 AM were generally in the lower 60s
under mostly cloudy skies. The high will continue moving
farther offshore overnight with the ridge aloft pushing
offshore by around sunrise this morning. Overnight lows will
mostly range from the upper 50s to lower 60s with some mid 50s
in the typically coolest rural interior locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- There is a chance for a few showers late Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night with a slightly higher chance for showers and
thunderstorms on Monday.

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible west of the
Chesapeake Bay Tuesday afternoon and evening.

A dampening shortwave and very weak sfc low will track just to our
north (from W to E) on Sunday. The low-level flow increases a bit
out of the SSW, which will allow dew points to recover to ~60F by
late aftn, although the best moisture return will still be to our S
and W. Nevertheless, isolated showers or sprinkles are possible
across the Piedmont by mid-late morning with low PoPs for
showers in the NW half of the FA by the aftn/evening. The
highest shower chances shift to the eastern third of the FA by
Sun night. Given that both sfc- based and elevated instability
will be very limited or nonexistent, am not expecting much of
any thunder through Sun night. Highs Sun in the upper 70s-lower
80s, with lows in the 60s Sun night with dew points rising to
the 60-65F range by sunrise on Mon. Another subtle shortwave
moves towards the area Mon with weak NW flow aloft. It will be a
bit warmer on Mon with highs in the low- mid 80s with dew
points rising into the mid- upper 60s. This should allow for
enough instability for tstms, and am expecting isolated to
scattered storms area-wide by the aftn/evening as the
environment will be uncapped with that shortwave moving through.
While severe wx is not expected, a few storms on Mon could
produce ~45 mph wind gusts which could result in very localized
tree damage. Tstms diminish Mon night w/ the loss of daytime
heating. Lows Mon night will be in the 60s. A backdoor cold
front approaches the area Mon night and crosses part of the area
on Tue. There won`t be much of a forcing mechanism for
convection along/ahead of the front, but will maintain slight
chc PoPs for isolated aftn/evening showers/tstms (mainly
inland). Forecast highs Tue are in the mid 70s-lower 80s near
the immediate Atlantic coast, with mid 80s in most areas west of
the bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather persists from mid to late week with multiple
chances for showers and storms.

- Mild with highs in the low-mid 80s each day.

Aloft, a ridge briefly builds across the East Coast through midweek
before a trough moves SE into the Great Lakes and interior New
England from mid to late week, potentially becoming a cutoff low
near or just north of the Great Lakes. As this pattern change
occurs, models show the potential for multiple shortwaves moving
through the area...which will give us daily chances for isolated-
scattered showers/tstms. While it is very hard to time individual
shortwaves this far in advance, it appears that the greatest chance
for storms all week will be on Wed and/or Thu as the combination of
the upper level trough approaching and a cold front moving through
(likely on Thu) should provide for enough forcing for at least
somewhat organized convection. A potential overlap of shear and
instability may allow for some stronger storms as well. However, as
alluded to above, uncertainty is still high this far out regarding
timing of the necessary ingredients for any mention of severe wx,
but will continue to monitor. Otherwise, warm/humid wx persists all
week with highs mainly in the mid 80s each day (upper 70s to lower
80s across the Eastern Shore) and lows mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions continue through the 6z taf period. Dry conditions
are expected to prevail through most of Sun with a low chance
for showers (which aren`t expected to cause flight restrictions)
late Sun into Sun night (~30% PoPs at RIC/PHF/ORF, 40% at SBY,
and 20% at ECG). Given low confidence in both timing and
coverage, have refrained from mentioning VCSH or -SHRA in the
tafs at this time. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies (due to
cirrus) continue through Sun night with a potential improvement
to SCT at PHF/ORF/ECG Sun morning. CIGs lower to ~5000-6000 ft
Sun night. Winds were light S/SW <5 kt tonight. Winds become SW
5-10 kt Sun (closer to 10 kt by Sun afternoon) before becoming
light and variable Sun night.

Chances for scattered showers and storms are increasing Mon
afternoon into Mon evening with VIS restrictions possible. Tue
looks mostly dry at the terminals with isolated to scattered
showers and storms possible across the Piedmont. Otherwise, unsettled
weather returns on Wed/Thu with additional chances for
showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

-High pressure shifts offshore today. Outside of any thunderstorms
Monday and later next week, generally quiet marine conditions are
favored.

High pressure is gradually shifting offshore this afternoon. Winds
are light and variable as of 230 PM, but are expected to shift to
the south areawide over the next few hours into this evening and
then to the SSW late tonight. This is in response to the high
shifting further offshore. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate a 4-
8 hr period (from about 3-11z/11 PM-7 AM) of south winds approaching
18 kt sustained in the Chesapeake Bay (with gusts 20-25 kt). At
this time, will continue to hold off on SCA headlines and keep the
official wind forecast just below 18 kt due to the marginal and
brief nature of the surge. An MWS or short-fused SCA may still be
required and will monitor through this aftn. Winds become due south
again for Sunday and should remain sub-SCA. Wind speeds of 10-15 kt
are expected in the bay/rivers/sound and 15-20 kt on the coastal
waters. A slow-moving cold front will drop S through the waters
Monday into Monday night. Winds will remain on the light side and be
from the SSW south of the front and E/ENE north of the front. With
the nearby front, scattered showers and storm could develop over or
near the marine area Monday aftn, with locally higher winds and
waves. With the front south of the area Tuesday, E winds ~10 kt are
expected. A warm front lifts N Wednesday and the flow again turns
southerly. This will favor an unsettled pattern with afternoon
shower and storm chances Wed and Thu. Outside of storms, winds stay
mainly sub-SCA.

Seas are 1-2 ft and waves 1 ft or less this aftn. Waves in the bay
become ~2 ft (locally 3 ft in the nrn bay) tonight w/ the elevated S
winds. Otherwise, waves/seas of 1-3 ft are expected through
Thursday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...LKB/RMM
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...SW