671
FXUS61 KAKQ 251915
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
315 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and storms are expected this afternoon and
evening. A warm front followed by a cold front will affect the
area Sunday afternoon through Monday night, bringing additional
rounds of showers and storms and potential severe weather
Monday. An upper trough brings cooler and comfortable weather to
end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated showers and storms through this evening.

- Areas of dense fog again expected to develop overnight, with the
highest coverage near the coast.

Rather quiet areawide this afternoon. Temps have warmed up into the
low-mid 80s for most of the area (upper 70s at the immediate coast).
Radar shows some isolated showers/storms developing to our W/W over
the higher terrain in association w/ weak lee troughing. CAMs are
not enthusiastic about much, if any, of this activity reaching our
CWA. This generally makes sense given weak flow and ridging
aloft. However, will maintain 20-30% PoPs over the Piedmont in
case a few storms spill over into our area. Not expecting any
severe wx. For late tonight and early Sunday, the remnants of a
convective system and/or its outflow may clip the Northern Neck
and the MD Eastern Shore. Continue to highlight 20-30% PoPs up
here in the 3-9z/11 PM-5 AM timeframe. Overnight lows in the
low-mid 60s. The last thing to mention is fog development is
again likely tonight, especially E of I-95 and toward/along the
coast. Fog may become dense at times and statements/advisories
may eventually be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered storms return Sunday.

- There is a threat of severe weather for Memorial Day (Monday).
Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.

Not much change for Sunday and similar wx is expected. Highs warm
into the mid-upper 80s. A few spots could even touch 90. However, a
few factors favor slightly higher convective coverage and perhaps
intensity. On the synoptic scale, slightly higher mid-level flow
overspreads the area in advance of a shortwave tracking from the OH
River Valley into the Great Lakes. Temperatures and dew points will
also be a degree or two higher than today, favoring a more unstable
low-level airmass. Hi-res model output shows MLCAPE increasing to
1500-2500 J/kg away from the eastern shore with ~20 kt of effective
shear areawide. The limiting factor early in the afternoon will
be a lack of any triggering mechanisms. The one exception are
sea breezes which could focus areas of higher coverage. Toward
the later aftn and evening, there is moderate agreement that
some sort of MCS will be moving eastward from the Appalachia
region in association w/ the upper disturbance. As this enters
into the FA, will need to watch for the potential for strong
wind gusts, especially if it moves in with some lingering
instability. Most CAMs show a considerable weakening trend,
especially as it nears the I-95 corridor and points eastward.
The area is not outlooked from SPC at this time. Lingering
showers are possible overnight and have 30-50% PoPs through the
morning hours Monday. Overnight lows drop into the mid 60s.
Patchy fog could also develop Sun night as weak sfc flow
continues.

Anomalous upper trough slides E for Monday/Memorial Day. At the
surface, a strong cold front will approach from the W. There is
increasing concern for severe wx areawide in the afternoon and
evening ahead of this front. It is during this time that 500 mb flow
increases to 40-60 kt and a potent shortwave noses into the region.
Instability will also be in plentiful supply with MLCAPE well in
excess of 2000 J/kg at times. This is not only due to steep
low- level lapse rates and strong sfc instability, but also
because of steep mid- level lapse rates approaching 7-8 C/km.
Thinking is that supercells or multicells will initially be
favored (w/ damaging winds and large hail hazards),
transitioning to a predominantly wind threat as clusters grow
upscale. SPC has a slight risk for most of the area and marginal
risk over NE NC. The extent and duration of the severe risk
will be dependent on the exact timing (later timing may reduce
the severe threat further E/SE as instability wanes). Locally
heavy rain is also likely in any storm. Overall, certainly worth
watching and monitoring the latest updates here and from SPC,
especially with a plethora of scheduled outdoor activities for
the holiday weekend. Outside of storms, afternoon highs will be
in the mid- upper 80s with dew points in the low- mid 70s. Thus,
it`ll feel noticeably muggy. Lows Mon night in the low-mid 60 s
W to near 70 E/SE.

Much quieter Tuesday with a lingering shower or storm across the far
SE. Highs in the low-mid 80s under a mostly sunny sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Trending cooler and more comfortable for the middle and end of
next week.

A relatively deep trough will drop into and remain positioned
over the ern CONUS for Wednesday through at least early next
weekend. Except for a chance of a shower/tstm over nrn portions
of the area Wed aftn into Wed evening in advance of a shortwave,
dry weather will prevail through the extended period. Highs Wed
in the upper 70s-low 80s. Comfortable conditions under a partly
to mostly sunny sky expected for Thu and Fri, with highs in the
mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows in the upper 50s-low 60s Tue
night and 50s areawide Wed-Fri night. Can`t rule out some upper
40s across the NW at some point.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR at all terminals this aftn, with earlier fog/low stratus
having dissipated earlier this morning. An area of CU w/ lower
CIGs (2000-3000 ft) remains over NE NC. Thus, occasional MVFR
could sneak into ECG. Confidence in this is low and will keep
out of the TAF (will go w/ SCT020). Otherwise, there is a very
low chance of a pop-up show or storm later this aftn into this
evening. There is again a strong signal in guidance for fog and
low stratus development tonight. The highest coverage will be at
the coastal terminals and IFR-LIFR restrictions look likely at
ORF/PHF/ECG/SBY. RIC is again the most uncertain and will go w/
prevailing MVFR there. Expect rapid improvement after 9 AM/13z
Sun.

Outlook: Scattered showers/storms will again be possible later
Sun, with highest confidence at RIC. Could again see fog or low
stratus Sun night. A higher coverage of showers and storms
(some of which could be severe) is expected Mon aftn and
evening. Outside of storms, expect mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign conditions this afternoon/evening.

- Dense marine fog possible tonight into Sunday morning.

- Chances for showers and storms (especially each afternoon and
evening) through Memorial Day.

Benign marine conditions across the local waters this afternoon,
with high pressure remaining in place over the region. Winds are
generally out of the E to SE around 5-10 kt with waves 1 ft or less
and seas 1-2 ft. Winds become light tonight into Sunday morning and
we will have to watch the potential for the development of dense fog
over the waters. Similar conditions tomorrow with increasing
onshore winds by the afternoon/evening.

A cold front approaches the area on Monday, associated with a
deepening low pressure center over the Great Lakes. Winds increase
out of the S and SW ahead of the front, with winds potentially
approaching SCA criteria Monday afternoon and evening. Winds veer
around to the NW behind the front on Tuesday into midweek.
Widespread showers and storms (potentially strong to severe) will be
possible on Monday ahead of the approaching cold front. E-SE swell
behind that system that could briefly bring some 5 foot seas by
Monday night. However, seas quickly subside as winds turn back
offshore through midweek.

Low Rip Risk on area beaches tomorrow, with a moderate rip risk for
northern beaches on Monday with building seas and more of a shore
normal component to wave energy.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW/TMG
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW/TMG
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJB