053
AXNT20 KNHC 280538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue May 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 14N
southward moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is within 120 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough and within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough, between 19W and 29W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W from 08N
southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the east of
the tropical wave, and within 300 nm to the west of the tropical
wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/74W from 21N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
numerous strong is in Colombia from 05N to 08N between 73W and
76W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 17N to
24N between 67W and 74W. This precipitation is covering parts of
Haiti, parts of the nearby SE Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic
Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, and in the Windward Passage. Moisture
that is associated with this tropical wave will spread into
Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Tuesday and on Wednesday. Expect
possibly gusty winds and locally heavy rain, during the next few
days, from eastern Cuba to the Virgin Islands, especially in
mountainous areas, leading to flash flooding. Please, refer to
bulletins and forecasts that are from your local weather bureau
office for more detailed information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
close to 15N17W, to 07N20W and 06N30W. The ITCZ continues from
06N30W, to 06N40W. Precipitation: scattered moderate, to isolated/
widely scattered strong, is mostly inland in South America, from
02N to 07N between 50W and 62W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean that is from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is within 60 nm to 90 nm to the north of the U.S.A.
Gulf coast. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 29N northward between 86W and 89W, and from 30N in the
Florida Panhandle northward between 80W and 86W. Numerous strong
is from 25N to 30N in Texas, between 95W in the Gulf coastal
waters of Texas and 101W in Mexico and Texas.

A surface ridge passes through the NW Bahamas, through South
Florida, to 30N94W close to the upper Texas Gulf coast.

Slight to moderate seas are in most of the western half of the
area. Slight seas are in the eastern half of the area, and off the
NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate or slower winds span
the entire Gulf of Mexico.

Hazy conditions, and dense smoke, due to agricultural fires in
Mexico, persist in most of the western Gulf of Mexico. The
visibilities are 3 nm or less at many observing sites that are
along the western and southwestern Gulf coast.

Weak surface ridging will continue to dominate across the Gulf
through Sat. As a result, winds will be SE gentle to moderate west
of 87W through Thu, but become moderate to fresh Thu evening
through Sat night. A weak cold front will move across the far NE
Gulf late tonight, followed by gentle W to NW winds. Otherwise,
fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the N and W portions
of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night
for the next several days. Haze west of 87W due to agricultural
fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least
the next couple of days. Visibilities will be 3 NM or less in the
SW Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is sending cyclonic wind flow from the
Yucatan Peninsula to the Windward Passage. The affected areas
include the Bahamas, Cuba, in the NW Caribbean Sea, and in parts
of Central America. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along
72W/74W, from 21N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15
knots. The upper level trough, and abundant northward-moving
tropical moisture, will continue to enhance the development of
rainshowers in the central and southwestern sections of the
Caribbean Sea.

Dense smoke is in the NW Caribbean Sea, especially in the Gulf of
Honduras. Agricultural fires have been in the northern sections
of Central America.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N between 75W in Colombia beyond
90W in the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon
trough.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 80W eastward. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds are from 15N northward from 80W westward.
Moderate NE winds are in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Slight to moderate seas are in the central one-third of the area.
Moderate seas are elsewhere.

A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of
the area and lower pressure along N South America will force fresh
to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras through Wed before diminishing late in the week. A
tropical wave currently over the central Caribbean is causing
scattered showers and thunderstorms as it moves slowly westward
during the next couple of days. Smoke from agricultural fires over
Central America is causing reduced visibilities over the Gulf of
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 31N52W 24N58W 20N61W, to 13N63W in the
SE Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 240 nm on either side of the surface trough.
The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 28/0000 UTC, are: 0.52 in Bermuda. This information is from
the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A surface ridge is to the west of the 31N52W-to-20N61W surface
trough, from a 1021 mb 33N60W high pressure center, to 26N71W
25N79W, into the NW Caribbean Sea.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 14N northward from
the 31N52W-to-20N61W surface trough eastward. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, is
elsewhere from 14N northward between 36W and 55W, and from 14N to
24N between 55W and 75W.

Moderate to rough seas are from 15N to 20N from 32W eastward.
Moderate seas are elsewhere to the southeast of 31N26W 26N36W
18N60W. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
Strong NE winds are from 06N to 12N between 46W and 53W. Fresh to
strong NE winds are from 19N northward from 21W eastward. Fresh NE
winds are elsewhere to the southeast of 31N20W 26N28W 19N38W 18N50W
16N60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

A 1021 mb Bermuda High is contributing toward moderate or lighter
winds across the basin today. A weak cold front should emerge
from the SE United States coast tonight, but then become
stationary north of the Bahamas and dissipate by tomorrow night.
The front will be accompanied by scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Winds and seas - away from the thunderstorms -
should remain quiescent for the next few days across the forecast
waters. Looking ahead, a late-season cold front is anticipated to
impact the waters north of the Greater Antilles Fri night into at
least Sat night.

$$
mt/nr