Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
525 FXUS63 KBIS 250601 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 101 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance (30%) of showers tonight west and south central. - Freezing temperatures overnight for portions of the north central. - Areas of frost over much of western and central North Dakota. - Active weather pattern continues with rain chances over much of the area through Monday, then again Thursday to Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 A couple areas of light rain showers continue over the far northwest and along the southern border. These will continue to move east before diminishing. Over the Turtle Mountains region, a few flakes continue to fall at Rolla, but this should come to an end in the next hour. UPDATE Issued at 938 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Winds have diminished in the James River Valley, the wind advisory has been allowed to expire. Snow continues over the Turtle Mountains of Rolette county and is expected to linger into the early overnight hours. Showers have moved into west central, southwest and south central ND. As of yet, any lightning in eastern Montana has fizzled before reaching North Dakota. With temperatures continuing to fall this evening think most of the activity will remain showers, although an isolated clap of thunder can`t be ruled out through late this evening. We have updated pops to keep the snow over the Turtle Mountains into the early overnight hours. We also expanded pops in western ND, eastward through the south central to the James River valley. Latest NBM Minimum temperature guidance expanded the area of freezing or below freezing temperatures in the north central. Therefore, we upgraded the Frost Advisory to a Freeze Warning for Rolette, Pierce, Bottineau, McHenry and Renville counties. We kept the timing the same as the Frost Advisory. Short term guidance has backed off on the fog late tonight over the northwest/west central. For now will keep fog out of the forecast. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly. UPDATE Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The wind advisory has been cancelled over the south central but remains in effect for the James River Valley. As of 6 PM winds were still gusting to 43 mph at Jamestown. Expect these winds to diminish a bit later this evening. Clouds were diminishing over western ND with some sunshine, but showers were over eastern Montana, and have already pushed into the southwest. Expect showers to move into the northwest in the next hour or so. There has been some lightening associated with this activity but there has been a decrease in lightning in the past 1-2 hours. Expect mainly scattered shower activity but a few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out this evening as this activity moves into western ND. In eastern portions of central ND, precipitation has ended over all but the far eastern portions of the CWA. Also, snow continues in and around the Turtle Mountains, but is expected to taper off this evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The stacked low pressure system continues to slowly move east across the North Dakota Minnesota border. In our area, temperatures have remained much cooler than first forecasted in the central and north on the backside of the low. This is allowing snow to mix with the rain falling. The Turtle Mountains area has received around 6 inches of snow so far! A rain/snow mix has been reported in the southern James River Valley and into South Dakota as well. Our forecast challenge of the day has been this, where will the rain snow mix be the rest of the day? We have adjusted from the NBM to have a rain snow mix the rest of of the day where precipitation is falling. This area is between Bismarck and Jamestown, up to the Canadian Border and east. The Wind Advisory is still in effect west of the river until 23z, and east of the river until 01z. Although they will most likely be cancelled early as the tight pressure gradient is over the James River Valley right now and moving east. In the cyclonic flow around the upper low, showers and maybe a thunderstorm are possible across the west and southwest for a few hours tonight, about a 30 percent chance. Lows overnight across the area will dip into the mid-30s with light winds. A Frost Advisory has been issued until 13z Saturday for this reason. Localized lower elevations could drop near or below freezing. The rest of Saturday will be drier, with highs still slightly below average in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The Turtle Mountains will be 50 degrees or cooler, especially with the snow on the ground, so this could be over forecasted. Frost is most likely again Saturday night in the northeast with temperatures in the mid 30s again. The pattern aloft Saturday has a brief weak ridge moving through before another upper low and shortwave move in Sunday. Sunday will still be below average temperatures with showers and thunderstorms (non-severe) likely, moving west to east. The highest chances move to the east by 00z as the next ridge pushes into the west. The chances of rain look to continue all night and into Monday afternoon. This ridge will continue until Wednesday night when another big low digs south through the Pacific Northwest. This puts us back into the active southwest flow with plenty of diffluence aloft for thunderstorms through Friday. Temperatures all week will remain just below average as our cooler Spring continues into June. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Isolated rain showers over northwest and southern North Dakota will taper off overnight. MVFR to IFR cloud cover over parts of north central North Dakota will gradually diminish overnight into Saturday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ001-002-009>011-018>023-025-033>037-041-042-044>048-050-051. Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for NDZ003>005-012- 013. && $$ UPDATE...JJS DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...JJS