764
FXUS64 KBMX 020636
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
136 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 806 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

The short wave that brought the rain earlier today has moved
eastward into Georgia. This has decreased the rain coverage for
the moment. A weaker short wave trough will move over northern
areas overnight providing additional lift. Southerly flow in a
nearly saturated low level environment will also provide lift and
therefore redevelopment of showers and possibly a thunderstorm are
possible overnight. It appears that the activity in southwest
Mississippi is associated with another disturbance at it will take
a more southerly path and stay mostly south of Central Alabama.
Made some adjustments to the pops and temp/dew point trends but
the overall forecast message looks good through Sunday.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

Tonight.

While the longwave trough moves east of the area overnight, an
unsettled zonal flow pattern is left in its wake, with a few
shortwave disturbances progged to continue to move east over the
area. Additionally, the diffuse surface boundary will persist
across the area, slowly moving to the northeast. The result will
be lingering clouds with continued chances for scattered showers
and the potential for a few thunderstorms overnight. The better
chances for activity will be across the eastern half of the
forecast area with slightly lower PoPs to the far northwest. There
will be some potential for some patchy fog to develop across
portions of the area before sunrise Sunday if winds decrease
enough and if there are some breaks in the cloud cover. Winds will
be light from the south at 3-6 mph. Low temperatures will range
from the lower 60s far east and northeast to the upper 60s
southwest.

Sunday.

More mid-level shortwaves will move over the area on Sunday while
some height rises occur over the Southern Plains through the day.
The diffuse boundary will lose further definition as it continues
to lift northeast toward Eastern Tennessee. Mostly cloudy skies
are expected with continued shower activity and a few
thunderstorms with the better chances across the southeast portion
of the forecast area. Winds will be from the south- southwest at
4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from near 80 in the higher
elevations east and northeast to the upper 80s far west and
southwest.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

No big changes from the previous forecast as the overall pattern
remains the same. Even better rain chances will be in place next
weekend, so stay stay tuned over the next few days to discuss the
impacts to the area.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

Monday through Friday.

High pressure builds in across the region on Monday with generally
weak flow aloft persisting through mid-week. This will lead to
largely diurnal thunderstorm activity for Central AL Monday and
Tuesday. The ridging begins to flatten and push southward as a
trough slides through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. A frontal
boundary will push southward Wednesday through Friday leading to a
better focus for showers and storms. With the surface forcing in
place, along with northwesterly flow aloft, we`ll need to watch this
system in the coming days as it evolves to determine any severe
threat, but for now will just include increasing rain and
thunderstorm chances in the forecast for Thursday into Friday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

VFR to MVFR conditions are noted by way of cigs at present.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate over the next few hours
with VFR sites going to MVFR and some MVFR sites going to IFR.
Will continue to have isolated to scattered SHRA and a few TSRA at
times as well as upper system progresses EWD. Winds will be
light/variable through sunrise and again tonight (Sun night).
During the day, winds will be generally SRLY 4-6kts with some
variable higher gusts possible in storms.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances remain near or above 30 percent for Sunday and
become more isolated on Monday. Winds will become more southerly
tonight into Sunday. RH values will remain above 50 through
Tuesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     83  63  89  66 /  60  20  20  10
Anniston    83  64  89  67 /  50  20  20  10
Birmingham  83  67  89  69 /  40  20  20  10
Tuscaloosa  86  67  89  70 /  20  20  20  10
Calera      84  66  89  69 /  30  20  20  10
Auburn      82  66  86  69 /  40  20  20  10
Montgomery  84  67  89  69 /  40  20  20  10
Troy        84  66  89  68 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75/05
LONG TERM....16/25/Owen
AVIATION...08