Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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066 FXUS64 KBMX 011740 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 415 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024 Upper ridging over E Conus has shifted enough EWD to allow for a shortwave trough to swing in from the Plains. Our mean flow is SSW into C AL for the activity although the entire swath is slowly shifting ESEWD as the shortwave swings into E Conus today and toward the coast on Sunday. On Sunday the wave weakens some, but will still be enough for some continued scattered convection. Convection is widespread this morning with some embedded bands of thunder. During the afternoon and evening today, some storms may be strong enough for a marginal downburst wind threat. There will also be heavy rain at times to contend with. Amounts are expected to be manageable with periodic breaks, with higher amounts closer to the coast. With more widespread rain today and extensive cloud cover, temperatures are not expected to be as warm today, but should be rebound on Sunday to closer to normal with more scattered convection as opposed to today. 08 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 346 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024 Monday through Friday. High pressure builds in across the region on Monday with generally weak flow aloft persisting through mid-week. This will lead to largely diurnal thunderstorm activity for Central AL Monday and Tuesday. The ridging begins to flatten and push southward as a trough slides through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. A frontal boundary will push southward Wednesday through Friday leading to a better focus for showers and storms. With the surface forcing in place, along with northwesterly flow aloft, we`ll need to watch this system in the coming days as it evolves to determine any severe threat, but for now will just include increasing rain and thunderstorm chances in the forecast for Thursday into Friday. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024 Clouds will linger over much of the area with continued chances for scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Expect chances for showers to persist overnight with best potential across the eastern northern sites and the southern sites with lowest chance at TCL. Some reduction in visibility will be possible, especially across portions of the northern terminal locations overnight, especially if there are any substantial breaks in the cloud cover. Isolated showers with some thunderstorms are again forecast on Sunday with the better chances across the eastern northern sites and both southern terminals. Thunderstorm potential is too low to include at any terminal location through this cycle. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected today, decreasing through the afternoon. Rain chances remain near or above 40% for Sunday and become more isolated to scattered for Monday. Winds will be out of the southeast today, becoming more southerly tonight into Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 63 83 63 88 / 70 40 20 30 Anniston 64 83 65 88 / 80 40 20 20 Birmingham 66 83 68 88 / 70 40 20 30 Tuscaloosa 68 86 68 88 / 60 30 10 30 Calera 65 84 68 88 / 70 40 20 30 Auburn 65 82 67 85 / 80 50 20 20 Montgomery 66 84 68 88 / 80 50 20 30 Troy 65 84 67 88 / 80 60 10 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...05