002
FXUS64 KCRP 312323
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
623 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Key Messages:

- Marginal risk of strong to severe storms Saturday night

A strong outflow boundary and storms earlier this morning has
stabilized most of South Texas with strong east to southeasterly
winds. The cooler air and lower dewpoints through most of today
has led to the cancellation of the Heat Advisory as heat index
values stay below 110. Low clouds filter back in tonight with low
temperatures from the mid 70s to around 80. Maintaining a low
(20%) chance of showers and storms through tonight for any remnant
development.

Cloud coverage decreases through the day on Saturday and will
allow temperatures to warm back up into the 90s. Heat index values
at this time will generally peak between 100-109. A Heat Advisory
is not expected at this time as probabilities of apparent
temperature greater than 109 is less than 20%. Another mid-level
shortwave riding the northern ridge will push eastward from far
West Texas and northeastern Mexico into Central Texas Saturday
night. There is a very low chance (less than 15%) of strong to
severe storms making their way from Mexico and the Hill Country
into South Texas. Saturday night lows in the upper 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Key Messages:

- 30-60% Chance for heat indices above 110 degrees next week; 10-40%
chance of surpassing 115 degrees

Quasi-zonal flow is expected throughout much of the long term as a
weak mid-level ridge builds underneath the zonal flow. The next
pattern change will be late next week as a long wave trough pushes
through the Great Plains and sends a weak cold front into Texas. As
the front is expected to stall to our north, we are not expected to
feel any impacts from next weeks disturbance which means we will be
dry through next week.

Above-normal temperatures are expected to return next week with
highs ranging in the lower to mid 90s along the coast and upper 90s
to near 105 from the Coastal Plains to the Rio Grande Plains. As
moisture increases to uncomfortable levels once again early next
week, heat indices will climb to miserable levels once again. There
is a medium (30-60%) chance for heat indices to climb above 110
degrees next week with a low to medium (10-40%) chance of surpassing
115 degrees. The hottest days next week are currently slated to be
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

High clouds moving across S TX from storms in Mexico and low to
mid level clouds moving northwest can be seen via satellite
imagery this afternoon. VFR conditions currently prevail across S
TX, but are expected to lower to MVFR this evening into the
overnight hours. Light patchy fog from ALI to VCT will also be
possible toward daybreak Saturday morning, leading to brief MVFR
VSBYs. Otherwise, VFR conditions will resume by mid morning
Saturday. Gusty afternoon and evening winds will subside overnight
then restrengthen Saturday with gusts ranging from 20-25kt. There
is a low to medium chance (10-30%) of showers and thunderstorms
this evening across COT and LRD as storms move eastward from
Mexico. However, several models indicate that as storms approach
the area, they are forecast to weaken or diminish all together.
Have included VCTS for this evening for COT and LRD for any storms
that reach these sites. A few showers will also be possible
Saturday morning across the Coastal Bend to the Victoria
Crossroads.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Moderate to strong easterly to southeasterly winds this afternoon
will be replaced with moderate onshore flow this evening. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect through 7 PM this evening. There is a
low chance of showers and thunderstorms late tonight through the
day Saturday. Moderate to strong southerly winds are expected
form Sunday through Wednesday with a low chance for Small Craft
Advisory conditions Sunday and Monday. Rain chances will be slim
(less than 10%) through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  93  81  94 /  10  10  10   0
Victoria          77  93  78  94 /  10  20  10  10
Laredo            80 101  79 103 /  20  10  10   0
Alice             79  96  78  98 /  20  10  10   0
Rockport          80  91  82  91 /  20  10  10  10
Cotulla           78  99  80 102 /  30  10  10   0
Kingsville        80  95  80  96 /  10  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       81  92  82  92 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232-
     236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...TE/81