422
FXUS64 KCRP 012051
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
351 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chances for rain overnight

Despite a clean radar at this time, there is a low to medium chance
for redevelopment across the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria
Crossroads as the atmosphere continues to recover with daytime
heating and their convective temperatures is reached. As for
possible triggers, an outflow boundary moving towards the coast from
the Gulf from this mornings storms could interact with the 4,000-
4,500 J/kg of CAPE to initiate thunderstorms. If a thunderstorm does
develop, there is a Slight Risk of the storm becoming severe as per
SPC Convective Outlook. After drying out this evening, there is
another low chance for rain, this time the focus being across the
Brush Country and Coastal Plains. Hi-res models are showing a
decaying MCS from West Texas this evening pushing southeastward into
the Brush Country around La Salle and pushing toward the coast.
Therefore, went with a 15-30% chance for measurable precipitation
after midnight from the Brush Country to the Coastal Bend.

We will begin to dry out tomorrow and tomorrow night as the
miserable heat returns to the forecast. Daytime highs tomorrow are
expected to range from the lower 90s along the coast to near 102
degrees across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains with heat
indices ranging from 103-109 degrees across the northern Coastal
Bend and Victoria Crossroads to 107-114 degrees from the southern
Coastal Bend through the Coastal Plains and into the Brush Country.
Therefore, there is a medium to high chance that a heat advisory
will be needed for tomorrow afternoon. Unfortunately, overnight
temperatures will remain mild with temperatures only expected to
drop into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Please continue to practice
heat safety and remain hydrated if working or spending time
outdoors.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor coastal flooding likely with water levels approaching the
dunes early Wednesday and Thursday mornings

- Low to medium chance of major to extreme heat-related impacts
daily Monday through Thursday

A mid-upper level ridge will be in place Monday, keeping conditions
very warm. However, a shortwave will push through Monday night,
bringing a low chance of showers and storms over the Rio Grande
Plains and Brush Country where a cluster of storms over northeast
Mexico has a low chance of persisting into the aforementioned area.

Heading through the middle of next week, the mid-level flow changes
quite a bit with a closed low over the eastern Pacific deepening and
moving northward into southern California near the end of the work
week. This will cause a great weakness in the flow aloft with
primarily ridging impacts in place in terms of rain-free and hot
conditions. There is a low to medium (30-40%) chance of heat index
values at least 110 Monday through Thursday. High temperatures
ranging from the low 90s along the coast to around 105 over the
Brush Country.

Last but not least, moderate to strong southeasterly flow in
combination of the new moon astronomical high tide poses a high risk
of minor coastal flooding along the Middle Texas Coast early
Wednesday morning and early Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the day before MVFR
conditions return tonight. Winds will continue to follow the
diurnal pattern being gusty during the days and weaker at nights.
Although we had some showers and storms this morning at VCT, there
is a low to medium chance for some redevelopment this afternoon
with a low chance of these storms becoming severe with strong
winds and hail as the main threats. CRP and VCT are the two sites
that would have the chance to be impacted with these storms with
VCT having the best chance of the two.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Weak to moderate south to southeast winds are expected tonight
with winds increasing to moderate to strong tomorrow and tomorrow
night with a medium chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions. Moderate
to strong onshore flow will persist Monday through early
Wednesday morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions may occur at
times each afternoon, generally over the southern bays and waters.
Onshore flow then weakens through the day Wednesday, becoming
weak to moderate Thursday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  81  94  81 /  20  30  20   0
Victoria          91  77  94  79 /  70  10  20   0
Laredo           101  81 102  80 /  10  10   0   0
Alice             96  79  98  78 /  20  30  10   0
Rockport          91  82  91  83 /  40  20  10   0
Cotulla          101  80 102  79 /  40  40   0   0
Kingsville        93  80  95  80 /  20  20  10   0
Navy Corpus       91  83  92  83 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...JCP