657
FXUS64 KCRP 020842
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
342 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Key Messages:

-Low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms this morning

-High Risk of rip currents through Monday evening


A decaying MCS will move through Central Texas this morning and will
continue to dissipate as it enters a more stable environment. The
decaying MCS will kick out a boundary that will act as an
initiator for storms to develop as it reaches the coastal trough
in place over the region. The storms will likely fire around 12Z
along the coastal trough located across the Coastal Bend and
advect northwards due to the presence of strong/extreme
instability (4000-5000 J/kg) and no cap. This will clear out by
the afternoon and give way to hot and humid conditions across the
region with highs in the 90s to 100s out west. There is a low to
medium chance that we could reach Heat Advisory criteria this
afternoon briefly. As of right now, the decision was hold off due
to some uncertainties in the duration. Monday will be a similar
story in terms of heat though there is a higher chance for Heat
Advisory criteria to be reached. There will also be a possibility
that we could see some areas in the Brush Country reach Excessive
Heat Warning criteria tomorrow. Be sure to stay hydrated and check
back for future updates.

With the prolonged winds and 7-8 second period swells the decision
was made to continue the High Risk of rip currents through tomorrow
evening. Early guidance has this likely continuing for the next
couple of days.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Key Messages:

- Medium to high chance for major to extreme risk of heat-related
impacts through Thursday

- Increasing confidence for minor coastal flooding by the middle of
the work week

Overall, no major changes made to this long term forecast update. A
shortwave working across the Southern Plains late Monday will allow
for a weakness in the upper level ridge. Guidance remains consistent
with the idea of a few streams of H5 vorticity passing through the
region late Monday. With sufficient moisture in place, will maintain
a mention of a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, generally
across the Brush Country. In the wake of the aforementioned
shortwave, upper level ridging becomes established. However, there`s
some potential for another ribbon of vorticity to pass through
Tues/Wed before ridging builds back but confidence isn`t as high
there. The strengthening upper level ridge will lead to increasing
temperatures through the middle of the week (more on that in a bit).
Towards the end of the work week, a closed low over the Eastern
Pacific will move inland over Southern CA and ride around the
western periphery of the ridge. As a result, the ridge will begin to
weaken, providing some slight relief from the heat and potentially
open the door to some impulses moving through within the weakened
northwesterly flow aloft.

Temperatures will be on the rise through the week with highs
settling into the low 90s along the coast to around 107 out west by
Wed/Thu. Increased low level moisture will put our afternoon heat
indices back into the 110-117 range Tuesday through Thursday.
Currently a medium to high (40-70%) chance of heat indices exceeding
110F. Much of the region will experience major to extreme risk of
heat-related impacts through Thursday. A weakness in the ridge by
Friday will provide some relief with heat indices only in the 105-
109 range and a low chance for heat indices exceeding 110.

Lastly, a persistent moderate to strong southeasterly flow and an
approaching new moon on June 6th, will providing an increasing risk
of minor coastal flooding by the middle of the week. Recent PETSS
guidance hints at us nearing criteria during Tuesday`s high tide
cycle. There is greater confidence during Wednesday and Thursday`s
high tide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

MVFR CIGs have been slow to develop, but are still expected by 08Z
across most of S TX. The main concern continues to be whether
storms that have developed around the Big Bend area and NE Mexico,
hold together long enough to reach S TX overnight. Have included
mention of thunderstorms for LRD and COT beginning after 06Z and
for the ALI, CRP and VCT TAF sites around 10Z or later.
Confidence is medium (25-40%) that storms will reach COT and lower
(10-20%) across the remainder of S TX. SPC now has a marginal
risk of severe storms across the northern half of S TX. By mid
morning Sunday, conditions will improve to VFR levels once again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Weak to moderate south to southeast winds are expected today
with winds increasing to moderate to strong tonight through
Monday night. There is a low to medium chance for showers and
thunderstorms this morning. Gusty winds and hazardous seas will be
possible with any passing storm. There is a medium to high chance
of Small Craft Advisory conditions Monday. Moderate to strong
onshore flow will persist through the middle of the week. Small
Craft Advisory conditions may occur at times each afternoon,
generally over the southern bays and waters. Onshore flow then
weakens, becoming weak to moderate Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  82  94  81 /  20   0   0  10
Victoria          93  79  93  79 /  20   0   0  10
Laredo           102  81 104  79 /  10   0  10  20
Alice             97  80  98  80 /  10   0   0  10
Rockport          91  82  91  82 /  30   0   0  10
Cotulla          102  81 103  79 /  10  10  10  20
Kingsville        95  81  96  80 /  10   0   0  10
Navy Corpus       92  83  91  83 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP/92
LONG TERM....TC/95
AVIATION...NP/92