397
FNUS28 KWNS 222144
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

...Day 3/Friday - Southwest...
A large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the western
CONUS, while a related belt of moderate west-southwesterly midlevel
flow overspreads a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest.
This will promote a deepening surface low over the southern Great
Basin, with a tightening pressure gradient across the Southwest.
These factors will yield strong/gusty surface winds and low RH
across much of AZ and NM, with the best chance for several hours of
critical conditions over northeast AZ and northwest NM -- where
fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread.

...Day 4/Saturday - Southwest and southern High Plains...
As the large-scale trough continues eastward across the western
CONUS, a strong midlevel jet streak will cross the Southwest and
southern High Plains during peak heating. This will result in a
deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a
sharpening dryline extending southward over the southern High
Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient and deep
boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will support an
expansive area of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across NM
into west TX. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels over much of
the area, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected.

Strong midlevel westerly flow trailing the aforementioned trough
will persist across NM on Day 5/Sunday, where warm/dry conditions
will persist. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions
are expected, before winds decrease across the region through the
remainder of the extended forecast period.

..Weinman.. 05/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$