Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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312
FXXX12 KWNP 191231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 May 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a
C4.1 at 18/1938 UTC from Region 3685 (S13E36, Ehi/beta-gamma). Slight
growth was observed in the intermediate spots of Region 3685 and the
leader spots of Region 3683 (S24W51, Dai/beta). New Region 3687 (N15E08,
Bxo/beta) was numbered. Other activity included an approximate 60 degree
filament eruption centered near S40E15 that began after 18/2125 UTC. An
associated CME was observed off the S limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at
18/2257 UTC. Modelling is in progress to determine if there is an
Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare
(R3/Strong or greater) on 19-21 May.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly elevated, but well
below S1 (Minor) levels. The 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to
moderate levels.

.Forecast...
There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV protons reaching S1
(Minor) levels on 19-21 May due to the flare potential of Region 3685.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to
moderate levels, with a chanced for high levels, through 21 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels with solar wind speed
ranging from 358-449 km/s. Total field ranged from 4-9 nT while the Bz
component was between +2/-7 nT. Phi angle was positive.

.Forecast...
By late on 19 May, the solar wind environment is expected to see the
influences of the passing CME from 15 May. Additional enhancements are
then expected on 20 May from the CME that left the Sun on 17 May. CME
influences are expected to slowly diminish on 21 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active levels are expected late on 19 May due to potential
activity from the 15 May CME. By 20 May, unsettled to active levels are
expected, with G1 (Minor) storming likely, due to glancing CME effects
from the 17 May CME. Mid to late day on 21 May, active levels are
expected to decrease to mostly unsettled levels as CME effects gradually
diminish.